Ireland emerges from technical recession; Tesla shares jump 12% after Musk’s China trip – business live

In the mining sector, BHP Group and Vale are proposing a $25.7bn settlement over Brazil’s worst environmental disaster, the Mariana dam failure.

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The collapse of the Fundão tailings dam in November 2015 killed 19 people, polluted a river and devastated livelihoods downstream of the Samarco Mariana Mining Complex.

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The dam was co-owned by Vale and BHP, through their Brazilian joint venture Samarco; they have been negotiating with the Brazilian State and Federal Government and other public entities.

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Today, they say:

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As part of the settlement negotiations, BHP Brasil, Samarco and Vale have submitted a non-binding, indicative settlement proposal which is within BHP Brasil’s provision for the Samarco dam failure.

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The proposal is for a total financial value of approximately R$127 billion (approximately US$25.7 billion) on a 100% basis with Samarco as the primary obligor and a 50% contribution from each of Vale and BHP Brasil as secondary obligors if Samarco cannot fund.

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The new offer includes around R$37bn (US$7.7bn) already spent on remediation and compensation to date.

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Shares in Tesla have surged 12% at the start of trading in New York, recovering some of their recent losses.

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Investors appear to be pleased with Elon Musk’s weekend work in Beijing, where he secured a deal for Tesla to use mapping data provided by web search company Baidu.

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Tesla Shares Up 10.7% After Clearing Key Regulatory Hurdles for Self-Driving in China

— DB News TradFi (@DBNewswire) April 29, 2024

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That deal could be an important step towards Tesla introducing driver assistance technology in the world’s largest car market.

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My colleague Jasper Jolly explains:

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Baidu, which dominates web search in China, will provide mapping and navigation functions to help Tesla operate its driver assistance technology, which it calls “full self-driving”, or FSD, according to sources cited by Bloomberg News. Mapping services – crucial to driver assistance technologies – are strictly controlled by China’s government.

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Despite its name, FSD does not provide autonomous driving abilities: it requires a driver who has “hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment”. However, launching it in China could help Tesla in the fierce competition for market share in the country, and provide more income. It costs $8,000, or $99 (£80) a month, although it is not available in many countries.

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As covered earlier (8.06am), Musk also met with China’s premier, Li Qiang, during an unexpected trip to the Chinese capital.

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Tesla’s shares are still down 25% so far this year, but have been recovering since mid-April when they sunk to around $140 each, amid concerns over slowing sales.

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Over in Brussels, the head of the International Monetary Fund has welcomed signs that inflation is easing in the eurozone.

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Kristalina Georgieva, IMF managing director, is addressing the Annual EU Budget Conference, and begins by hailing easing inflation.

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Georgieva says:

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The global environment. When we stare out at the horizon, what do we see?

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I see a hint of sunshine. But I also see a dull grey sky and some dark clouds.

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Let me start with the sunshine. After a global burst of inflation to levels many people have never seen in their lifetimes, it looks like the ECB’s tight monetary policy is doing its work.

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This is something I need to say carefully because it’s not over yet. But, yes, it looks promising: inflation down from its disturbingly high peaks and no deep recessions in Europe.

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Georgieva then warns, though, that the forget though, that “the last mile can be the hardest” in the fight against inflation.

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No longer will the major central banks be marching in lockstep, as they did during the recent ratehiking cycle. No. From now on, each currency zone will have to chart its own path. An interest rate divergence looms, and maybe some exchange rate movements too.

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We save the champagne for later.

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Just in: German inflation rise slightly this month.

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On an EU-harmonised basis, German consumer price inflation rose to 2.4% this month, up from 2.3% in March.

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On a non-harmonised basis, though, German inflation was flat at 2.2%, with services inflation slowing to 3.4% but goods inflation rising to 1.2%.

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Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, eased to 3% in April from 3.3% in March.

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German CPI data comes in slightly below expectations:

• CPI inflation comes in at 0.5% MoM and 2.2% YoY (vs 0.6% MoM and 2.3% YoY expected) in Apr, unchanged from Mar.
• Core CPI inflation eases from 3.3% YoY in Mar to 3.0% YoY in Apr.
• Services inflation at 3.4% YoY (prev… pic.twitter.com/nhsL62LdU2

— MTS Insights (@MTSInsights) April 29, 2024

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Inflation in Spain has risen, as Madrid’s government cut back support for energy bills.

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Spanish consumer price inflation rose to 3.3% per year in April, up from 3.2% in March.

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Inflation was pushed up by gas prices – which rose this month but fell in April 2023 – after Spain’s government stopped measures taken to ease rising inflation after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago.

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Spanish inflation accelerates as government energy aid removed https://t.co/yGzUN2VzpN pic.twitter.com/o4NuW9GMUH

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 29, 2024

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Food prices also rose.

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Core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, fell to 2.9% from 3.3% in March.

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This data, and Germany’s CPI report due in half an hour, will feed into the latest eurozone inflation data due at 10am tomorrow.

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Newsflash: Ireland has escaped a technical recession, after its economy returned to growth this year driven by its IT sector.

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Ireland’s GDP is estimated to have risen by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in January-March, new data from the Central Statistics Office shows. Growth was driven mainly by an increase in the Information & Communication sector.

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That follows a 3.4% tumble in GDP in the final three months of 2023.

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Enda Behan, statistician in the National Accounts Data Collection and Quality Division, said:

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“In today’s release, GDP is estimated to have expanded by 1.1% in Q1 2024 in volume terms when compared with Q4 2023.

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This was driven by an increase in the multinational dominated sector of Information & Communication in Q1 2024. GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.8% when compared with the same quarter of 2023.

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Ireland’s GDP fell in every quarter of last year, shrinking by 3.4% in Q1, 0.1% in Q2 and 2.5% in Q3.

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chart showing Ireland’s GDP”,”caption”:”A chart showing Ireland’s GDP”,”credit”:”Photograph: Central Statistics Office”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

But….GDP is not a very precise way of measuring the Irish economy, as it is dominated by multinational companies based in the Republic.

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Ireland’s government favours another measures, called modified domestic demand, which excludes the large transactions of foreign corporations. Unfortunately we did not have new MDD data today.

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Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 1.1% in Quarter 1 2024https://t.co/Lp4kLgQkMY#CSOIreland #Ireland #NationalAccounts #Economy #Economics #EconomicIndicators #GovernmentFinances #EconomicActivity #Output #ValueAdded pic.twitter.com/UWxvVRT3Ry

— Central Statistics Office Ireland (@CSOIreland) April 29, 2024

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Just in: economic sentiment has fallen marginally in the EU and the euro area, as Europeans fret about their employment prospects.

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The Economic Sentiment Indicator declined in the EU (by 0.3 points to 96.2) in April, and by more within the eurozone (where it fell by 0.6 points to 95.6).

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The employment expectations gauge fell slightly more sharply.

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Confidence among industrial firms, and among services companies, both fell; consumer confidence inched up, but remained in negative territory.

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Within individual countries, economic sentiment deteriorated significantly in France (-4.8 points) and more moderately in Italy (-1.3 points), while it improved markedly in Spain (+2.3), Germany (+1.5) and Poland (+1.5).

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The ESI remained broadly stable in the Netherlands (rising by 0.3).

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chart showing eurozone economic sentiment”,”caption”:”A chart showing eurozone economic sentiment”,”credit”:”Photograph: European Commission”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Tomorrow we learn whether the eurozone returned to growth, when GDP data for the first quarter of 2024 is released….

“,”elementId”:”b45229f7-ffff-4c90-a52c-6542134ba664″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1714383454000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”05.37 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1714384554000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”05.55 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1714384065000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”05.47 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”05.47″,”title”:”Eurozone economic sentiment weakens”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 29 Apr 2024 10.13 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 29 Apr 2024 02.28 EDT”},{“id”:”662f5a2d8f08649d2d97069b”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

New inflation data today has shown that prices rose in four German states this month.

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In Bavaria, the annual inflation rate rose in April to 2.5% from 2.3% in March, in Brandenburg it rose to 3.0% from 2.8%, in Saxony it rose to 2.7% from 2.5%, and in Hesse it rose to 1.9% from 1.6%.

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German CPI Bavaria (M/M) Apr: 0.6% (prev 0.4%)
– CPI Bavaria (Y/Y) Apr: 2.5% (prev 2.3%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 29, 2024

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German CPI Brandenburg (M/M) Apr: 0.6% (prev 0.4%)
– CPI Brandenburg (Y/Y) Apr: 3.0% (prev 2.8%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 29, 2024

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German CPI Saxony (M/M) Apr: 0.6% (prev 0.4%)
– CPI Saxony (Y/Y) Apr: 2.7% (prev 2.5%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 29, 2024

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German CPI Hesse (M/M) Apr: 0.6% (prev 0.3%)
– CPI Hesse (Y/Y) Apr: 1.9% (prev 1.6%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 29, 2024

“},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Inflation didn’t rise everwhere, though; it was flat at 2.3% in North Rhine-Westphalia, and fell to 2.1% from 2.3% in Baden-Wuerttemberg.

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German CPI North Rhine Westphalia (M/M) Apr: 0.4% (prev 0.3%)
– CPI North Rhine Westphalia (Y/Y) Apr: 2.3% (prev 2.3%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 29, 2024

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German CPI Baden Wuerttemberg (M/M) Apr: 0.3% (prev 0.5%)
– CPI Baden Wuerttemberg (Y/Y) Apr: 2.1% (prev 2.3%)

— LiveSquawk (@LiveSquawk) April 29, 2024

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This tees up Germany’s inflation report, due at 1pm today, which is expected to show a rise to 2.3% from 2.2% in March.

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German April cpi likely in line with consensus at 2.3%. could maybe round down to 2.2%. Core looks sub-3% to me helped by Easter vola but other bits contributing too. Gas prices up <5% m/m despite VAT hike (few data pts) <-- main news if true, will throw of many est. for H2 CPI pic.twitter.com/IZoi9DXBrP

— Oliver Rakau (@OliverRakau) April 29, 2024

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The London stock market has begun the new week on the front foot, jumping to a new alltime high.

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The FTSE 100 share index jumped by 45 points, or over 0.5%, to a new intraday high of 8185 points.

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Prudential are among the top riser, up 3%, after fellow Asia-Pacific insurer AIA Group reported strong results.

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UK retailers Frasers are up 3.1% after announcing a new share buyback programme this morning, while Anglo American are also among the risers on speculation that BHP may make a higher bid.

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Susannah Streeter, head of money and markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, says:

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n

‘’Sentiment is upbeat at the start of the week, fuelled by relief that inflationary pressures in the US aren’t as bad as feared, and hopes return that a ceasefire could be negotiated in the Middle East. The FTSE 100 has scaled fresh heights, with another sprint higher in early trade.

n

April has been a record-breaking month for the blue-chip index, with a glass-half full sentiment dominating. The Footsie has gained more than 11% over the last six months, with super-patient investors finally rewarded by this spurt of growth. The weaker pound against the dollar has been a key player in the power surge, with the greenback gaining ground against a basket of currencies on the latest interest rate expectations.

n

Investor optimism has been buoyed by a rally on US markets on Friday, and developments in the Middle East. Negotiators from Israel and Hamas expected to meet in Egypt, while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken ups diplomatic efforts at the World Economic Forum in Riyadh, Saudia Arabia.

n

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Prices for smaller homes such as flats have been increasing at a faster rate than bigger properties amid affordability constraints, according to lender Halifax this morning.

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Halifax reports that the “race for space” that was seen during the coronavirus pandemic has now gone into reverse, with buyers targeting smaller, cheaper homes.

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In the year to February, the average price of a flat increased by 2.7%, while the average terraced property value rose by 2.6%, Halifax said.

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Prices for semi-detached and detached homes increased at lower rates, rising by 1.7% and 2.0% respectively.

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Amanda Bryden, head of Halifax Mortgages, said:

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n

“As interest rates have stabilised and buyers adjust to the new economic reality of owning a home, one way to compensate for higher borrowing costs is to target smaller properties.

n

“This is especially true among first-time buyers, who have proven to be resilient over recent years, and now account for the largest proportion of homes purchased with a mortgage in almost 30 years.

n

“We see this reflected in property prices for the first few months of this year, with the value of flats rising most sharply, closing the ‘growth gap’ on bigger properties that’s existed for most of the last four years.”

n

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Prices of flats increasing more sharply than other property types, says Halifax https://t.co/BDJ5onVryS pic.twitter.com/tpohh5ieWM

— The Independent (@Independent) April 29, 2024

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Zoopla’s calculations showing a rise in mortgage costs come at a time when several mortgage lenders are increasing rates, blaming “market uncertainty”.

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The City currently expect just two interest rate cuts this year, less than they expected at the start of 2024, with the first cut fully priced in for September.

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Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at estate agents Knight Frank, says

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n

“Housing market activity has rebounded over the last year but the shock of the mini-Budget was still reverberating during the early months of 2023.

n

The pipeline of sales has grown since Christmas, largely as positivity from January translates into spring listings. Since then, the prospect of the first rate cut since March 2020 has become more remote with each release of economic data, which means mortgage rates have edged back up and house prices are once again under downwards pressure.”

n

“,”elementId”:”24a18c7e-16da-4573-a5d6-ace948897e3e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Leading UK lenders raise fixed-rate mortgage deals amid ‘market uncertainty’”,”elementId”:”0082e9c6-6929-494c-ab03-592dad9ff558″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/money/2024/apr/23/leading-uk-lenders-raise-fixed-rate-mortgage-deals-amid-market-uncertainty”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1714372123000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.28 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1714372203000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”02.30 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1714372203000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.30 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.30″,”title”:”Knight Frank: house prices are once again under downwards pressure”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 29 Apr 2024 10.13 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 29 Apr 2024 02.28 EDT”},{“id”:”662ea4888f08649d2d970254″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of business, the financial markets and the world economy.

“,”elementId”:”0fe3f9e0-f52f-48e2-8846-2013731bfd87″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

A year and a half on from the mini-budget turmoil, UK households are still paying sharply more when they take out a mortgage.

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New research from property website Zoopla this morning shows that higher mortgage rates are adding to the affordability pressures on buyers, and dragging on house price inflation.

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Zoopla has calculated that the average home buyer taking out a 70% loan to value mortgage now face annual mortgage repayments that are 61% higher today than three years ago (in March 2021) before mortgage rates started to rise.

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That’s because mortgage rates are around 4.5% today compared to below 2% in March 2021, meaning average annual mortgage repayments have risen from £7,100 to £11,400.

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However, only two-thirds of this increase is driven by higher mortgage rates, with a third down to the fact that house prices are 13% higher than 3 years ago, Zoopla adds.

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Londoners (where property prices are highest), face the largest increase, of £7,500 per year.

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Buyers in the South West, South East and East of England face paying at least £5,000 per year more.

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Across other regions and countries of the UK, the increase is lower, at between £2,350 and £3,900 a year.

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chart showing rise in mortgage repayments”,”credit”:”Photograph: Zoopla”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Mortgage rates had been rising in 2022 as the Bank of England lifted interest rates, and the City anticipated further tightening. But costs then jumped after the unfunded tax cuts in the mini-budget of September 2022 alarmed investors, prompting a selloff in government bonds used to price fixed mortgages.

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Liz Truss, though, last week declined to apologise for the sharp rise in interest rates during her time in office, pointing out that mortgage rates have gone up across the world.

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But, UK government bond yields (which rise when prices fall) certainly did spike through September 2022:

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Bank of England chart showing the rise in interest rates after the mini-budget of September 2022″,”caption”:”A Bank of England chart showing the rise in interest rates after the mini-budget of September 2022″,”credit”:”Photograph: Bank of England”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Zoopla’s data also shows that house sales volumes are up 12% year on year, in the four weeks to 21 April, putting the market on track for 1.1m sales in 2024, up 10% on last year

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But prices dipped by 0.2% month-on-month, while almost two thirds (64%) of all homes are in local markets where prices are lower than a year ago.

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chart showing UK house price changes”,”credit”:”Photograph: Zoopla”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Factors including higher mortgage rates and stamp duty are behind ongoing price falls across the south of England, Zoopla reckons.

“,”elementId”:”106f7f9f-eab7-49b9-ac10-48643e4159e5″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, says the market is adjusting to higher borrowing costs; he doesn’t believe prices will start to rise as buyers face much higher mortgage repayments than in the recent past, so sellers should remain realistic.

“,”elementId”:”3b33398c-7972-4715-8ba0-12a27422b386″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

“The rebound in sales being agreed continues for a fourth month as mortgage rates have fallen, consumer confidence improves and home buyers have much greater choice of homes for sale. The pipeline of sales is growing and we expect 100,000 more people to move home in 2024 than last year.

n

“,”elementId”:”6eacf543-54f9-47fa-ad1d-edb08b58190e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

Also coming up today

“,”elementId”:”da723cf0-15b8-4457-ac9e-8f90aae0511e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Ocado faces a showdown with shareholders at its annual meeting today, over a new pay scheme that could hand boss Tim Steiner a bonus share award of up to £15m.

“,”elementId”:”81db214d-a4e0-4f01-bdac-8a987fa48bc7″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Ocado pay backlash looms as firm moves to offer boss £14.8m package”,”elementId”:”1ef1ee55-d219-460e-9c39-f98f4a88283f”,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/apr/29/ocado-pay-backlash-looms-as-firm-moves-to-offer-boss-148m-package”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

While in Whitehall, senior officials are worried that Thames Water’s financial collapse could trigger a rise in government borrowing costs not seen since the chaos of the mini-budget.

“,”elementId”:”41d91d9f-ff00-42fe-9602-04a7432233c8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Officials in the Treasury and the UK’s Debt Management Office fear that, unless the UK’s biggest water company is renationalised as soon as possible, “prolonged uncertainty” about its fate could “damage confidence in UK plc at a sensitive time”….

“,”elementId”:”d58a956c-02f5-4071-b7a9-ff3745425d31″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Thames Water collapse could trigger Truss-style borrowing crisis, Whitehall officials fear”,”elementId”:”454e2d1a-5d44-4892-a055-910f6d8c1473″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/business/2024/apr/28/thames-water-collapse-borrowing-whitehall-uk-finances-bonds-liz-truss”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

And in the markets, the FTSE 100 is set to open higher, after its best week since last September.

“,”elementId”:”d363b857-a226-428f-80e3-3c6f60208ba8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.SubheadingBlockElement”,”html”:”

The agenda

“,”elementId”:”8af23f48-369e-426d-8d62-5f50dffc8753″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

n

• 7am BST: Sweden’s GDP report for Q1 2024

n

• 8am BST: Spanish inflation report for April

n

• 10am BST: Eurozone consumer confidence, and economic & industrial sentiment data for April

n

• 11am BST: Ireland’s GDP report for Q1 2024

n

• 3.30pm BST: The Dallas Fed manufacturing index

n

“,”elementId”:”e4379bab-50b6-4639-a596-bd4fa73b5daa”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1714372123000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”02.28 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1714372573000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”02.36 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1714372123000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”02.28 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”02.28″,”title”:”Introduction: Mortgage repayments up 60% since 2021, reports Zoopla”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Mon 29 Apr 2024 10.13 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Mon 29 Apr 2024 02.28 EDT”}],”filterKeyEvents”:false,”id”:”key-events-carousel-mobile”}”>

Key events

BHP and Vale propose $25bn reparations to settle Mariana disaster

In the mining sector, BHP Group and Vale are proposing a $25.7bn settlement over Brazil’s worst environmental disaster, the Mariana dam failure.

The collapse of the Fundão tailings dam in November 2015 killed 19 people, polluted a river and devastated livelihoods downstream of the Samarco Mariana Mining Complex.

The dam was co-owned by Vale and BHP, through their Brazilian joint venture Samarco; they have been negotiating with the Brazilian State and Federal Government and other public entities.

Today, they say:

As part of the settlement negotiations, BHP Brasil, Samarco and Vale have submitted a non-binding, indicative settlement proposal which is within BHP Brasil’s provision for the Samarco dam failure.

The proposal is for a total financial value of approximately R$127 billion (approximately US$25.7 billion) on a 100% basis with Samarco as the primary obligor and a 50% contribution from each of Vale and BHP Brasil as secondary obligors if Samarco cannot fund.

The new offer includes around R$37bn (US$7.7bn) already spent on remediation and compensation to date.

Tesla shares jump 12% after Musk’s Beijing trip

Shares in Tesla have surged 12% at the start of trading in New York, recovering some of their recent losses.

Investors appear to be pleased with Elon Musk’s weekend work in Beijing, where he secured a deal for Tesla to use mapping data provided by web search company Baidu.

Tesla Shares Up 10.7% After Clearing Key Regulatory Hurdles for Self-Driving in China

— DB News TradFi (@DBNewswire) April 29, 2024

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Tesla Shares Up 10.7% After Clearing Key Regulatory Hurdles for Self-Driving in China

— DB News TradFi (@DBNewswire) April 29, 2024

That deal could be an important step towards Tesla introducing driver assistance technology in the world’s largest car market.

My colleague Jasper Jolly explains:

Baidu, which dominates web search in China, will provide mapping and navigation functions to help Tesla operate its driver assistance technology, which it calls “full self-driving”, or FSD, according to sources cited by Bloomberg News. Mapping services – crucial to driver assistance technologies – are strictly controlled by China’s government.

Despite its name, FSD does not provide autonomous driving abilities: it requires a driver who has “hands on the wheel and is prepared to take over at any moment”. However, launching it in China could help Tesla in the fierce competition for market share in the country, and provide more income. It costs $8,000, or $99 (£80) a month, although it is not available in many countries.

As covered earlier (8.06am), Musk also met with China’s premier, Li Qiang, during an unexpected trip to the Chinese capital.

Tesla’s shares are still down 25% so far this year, but have been recovering since mid-April when they sunk to around $140 each, amid concerns over slowing sales.

Kristalina Georgieva then warns that Europe is facing two problems – low growth and high debt.

She explains:

Problem one: growth. Our World Economic Outlook shows the global economy converging back to a rather weak trend rate of growth. Yes, the US economy still looks like it’s firing on all cylinders, but that is unlikely to last. In China, real-estate issues weigh on the outlook. In Europe, productivity growth lags behind, reflecting much less private investment in new technologies than in the United States. This is why we say it is vital to pursue structural reforms and scale-up innovation and investment. Europe needs faster productivity growth, and that means reforms—including transformational ones in the energy and digital arenas, and the completion of the single market.

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US economy does not have long to demonstrate high rates of its current activity -IMF head Kristalina Georgieva.

“The US economy is still running at full capacity, but it is unlikely that this will last,” she said in her opening speech the budget conference.#EU–#USA

— Millitary Nerd (@MilitaryNerdd) April 29, 2024

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US economy does not have long to demonstrate high rates of its current activity -IMF head Kristalina Georgieva.

“The US economy is still running at full capacity, but it is unlikely that this will last,” she said in her opening speech the budget conference.#EU–#USA

— Millitary Nerd (@MilitaryNerdd) April 29, 2024

Problem two: debt. After two massive shocks—the pandemic and the energy-supply shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—many countries are shouldering very heavy public debt burdens. This is why we say many countries must now pursue judicious, wellarticulated medium-term fiscal consolidation to rebuild buffers— appropriately tailored to country specifics, of course.

This is “not a great place” to start a big push to develop clean energy supply and fight climate change, Georgieva cautions, adding:

But let us be clear: if we do not win the fight against climate change, all of humanity together, we will all suffer.

IMF’s Georgieva hails falling eurozone inflation

Over in Brussels, the head of the International Monetary Fund has welcomed signs that inflation is easing in the eurozone.

Kristalina Georgieva, IMF managing director, is addressing the Annual EU Budget Conference, and begins by hailing easing inflation.

Georgieva says:

The global environment. When we stare out at the horizon, what do we see?

I see a hint of sunshine. But I also see a dull grey sky and some dark clouds.

Let me start with the sunshine. After a global burst of inflation to levels many people have never seen in their lifetimes, it looks like the ECB’s tight monetary policy is doing its work.

This is something I need to say carefully because it’s not over yet. But, yes, it looks promising: inflation down from its disturbingly high peaks and no deep recessions in Europe.

Georgieva then warns, though, that the forget though, that “the last mile can be the hardest” in the fight against inflation.

No longer will the major central banks be marching in lockstep, as they did during the recent ratehiking cycle. No. From now on, each currency zone will have to chart its own path. An interest rate divergence looms, and maybe some exchange rate movements too.

We save the champagne for later.

Over at Heathrow Airport, members of Border Force have set up a picket line as a four-day strike in a dispute over working conditions.

The Public and Commercial Services (PCS) union said more than 300 of its members will take part in the industrial action, which started at 5am today and will continue until 7am on Friday.

The union said the workers, based at Heathrow’s Terminals 2, 3, 4 and 5, are protesting at plans to introduce new rosters they claim will see around 250 of them forced out of their jobs at passport control.

PCS general secretary Fran Heathcote said:

“It’s disappointing that, despite talks last week, the Home Office is not prepared to grant any flexibility to their new roster.

“None of our dedicated and highly experienced members in the Border Force want to take strike action but the way they’ve been treated by their employer leaves them with no option.

“The Home Office still have time to prevent tomorrow’s strike if they agree to abandon this unworkable new system.”

German harmonised inflation rises to 2.4%

Just in: German inflation rise slightly this month.

On an EU-harmonised basis, German consumer price inflation rose to 2.4% this month, up from 2.3% in March.

On a non-harmonised basis, though, German inflation was flat at 2.2%, with services inflation slowing to 3.4% but goods inflation rising to 1.2%.

Core inflation, which strips out food and energy, eased to 3% in April from 3.3% in March.

German CPI data comes in slightly below expectations:

• CPI inflation comes in at 0.5% MoM and 2.2% YoY (vs 0.6% MoM and 2.3% YoY expected) in Apr, unchanged from Mar.
• Core CPI inflation eases from 3.3% YoY in Mar to 3.0% YoY in Apr.
• Services inflation at 3.4% YoY (prev… pic.twitter.com/nhsL62LdU2

— MTS Insights (@MTSInsights) April 29, 2024

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German CPI data comes in slightly below expectations:

• CPI inflation comes in at 0.5% MoM and 2.2% YoY (vs 0.6% MoM and 2.3% YoY expected) in Apr, unchanged from Mar.

• Core CPI inflation eases from 3.3% YoY in Mar to 3.0% YoY in Apr.

• Services inflation at 3.4% YoY (prev… pic.twitter.com/nhsL62LdU2

— MTS Insights (@MTSInsights) April 29, 2024

Spanish inflation rises after energy support cut

Inflation in Spain has risen, as Madrid’s government cut back support for energy bills.

Spanish consumer price inflation rose to 3.3% per year in April, up from 3.2% in March.

Inflation was pushed up by gas prices – which rose this month but fell in April 2023 – after Spain’s government stopped measures taken to ease rising inflation after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago.

Spanish inflation accelerates as government energy aid removed https://t.co/yGzUN2VzpN pic.twitter.com/o4NuW9GMUH

— Zoe Schneeweiss (@ZSchneeweiss) April 29, 2024

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Food prices also rose.

Core inflation, which strips out food and energy prices, fell to 2.9% from 3.3% in March.

This data, and Germany’s CPI report due in half an hour, will feed into the latest eurozone inflation data due at 10am tomorrow.

Ireland’s return to growth is a sign that tomorrow’s eagerly-awaited eurozone GDP report may bring good news.

Economists predict the eurozone returned to modest growth in Q1 2024, after shrinking slightly in the second half of last year (GDP fell by 0.1% in both Q3 and Q4 2023).

Ireland’s 1.1% growth, and the 0.3% recorded in Belgium this morning, will help that return to growth.

Analysts at Investec said last Friday:

Recent revisions now mean that the Eurozone was in a technical recession in H2, albeit by the slimmest of margins.

Given that economic data at the start of 2024 has been more positive, we expect the Eurozone exited that recession in Q1, with a 0.1% quarterly expansion in output.

Ireland’s economy partially rebounded in the first quarter, a gain that may have helped the euro zone as a whole exit a shallow recession https://t.co/PuXte7ZQaY

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) April 29, 2024

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Ireland’s economy partially rebounded in the first quarter, a gain that may have helped the euro zone as a whole exit a shallow recession https://t.co/PuXte7ZQaY

— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) April 29, 2024

Ireland’s technical recession over as GDP rises in Q1 2024

Newsflash: Ireland has escaped a technical recession, after its economy returned to growth this year driven by its IT sector.

Ireland’s GDP is estimated to have risen by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in January-March, new data from the Central Statistics Office shows. Growth was driven mainly by an increase in the Information & Communication sector.

That follows a 3.4% tumble in GDP in the final three months of 2023.

Enda Behan, statistician in the National Accounts Data Collection and Quality Division, said:

“In today’s release, GDP is estimated to have expanded by 1.1% in Q1 2024 in volume terms when compared with Q4 2023.

This was driven by an increase in the multinational dominated sector of Information & Communication in Q1 2024. GDP is estimated to have fallen by 0.8% when compared with the same quarter of 2023.

Ireland’s GDP fell in every quarter of last year, shrinking by 3.4% in Q1, 0.1% in Q2 and 2.5% in Q3.

But….GDP is not a very precise way of measuring the Irish economy, as it is dominated by multinational companies based in the Republic.

Ireland’s government favours another measures, called modified domestic demand, which excludes the large transactions of foreign corporations. Unfortunately we did not have new MDD data today.

Early estimates indicate that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 1.1% in Quarter 1 2024https://t.co/Lp4kLgQkMY#CSOIreland #Ireland #NationalAccounts #Economy #Economics #EconomicIndicators #GovernmentFinances #EconomicActivity #Output #ValueAdded pic.twitter.com/UWxvVRT3Ry

— Central Statistics Office Ireland (@CSOIreland) April 29, 2024

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Eurozone economic sentiment weakens

Just in: economic sentiment has fallen marginally in the EU and the euro area, as Europeans fret about their employment prospects.

The Economic Sentiment Indicator declined in the EU (by 0.3 points to 96.2) in April, and by more within the eurozone (where it fell by 0.6 points to 95.6).

The employment expectations gauge fell slightly more sharply.

Confidence among industrial firms, and among services companies, both fell; consumer confidence inched up, but remained in negative territory.

Within individual countries, economic sentiment deteriorated significantly in France (-4.8 points) and more moderately in Italy (-1.3 points), while it improved markedly in Spain (+2.3), Germany (+1.5) and Poland (+1.5).

The ESI remained broadly stable in the Netherlands (rising by 0.3).

Tomorrow we learn whether the eurozone returned to growth, when GDP data for the first quarter of 2024 is released….

Belgium’s economy has continued to grow at a modest pace, new data from its central bank shows.

Belgian GDP rose by 0.3% in January-March, the fourth quarter in a row in which a 0.3% expansion was recorded.

Both industry and services grew by 0.3%, while the construction sector shrank by 0.2%.

Sweden’s economy has shrunk for the fourth quarter in a row, leaving it in recession.

Swedish GDP shrank by 0.1% in the first quarter of 2024, Statistics Sweden reported this morning.

Mattias Kain Wyatt, economist at Statistics Sweden, says:

“Swedish economic activity continued to weaken in the first quarter of 2024 with contractions in the months of February and March. This is the fourth consecutive quarter with negative growth.”

Marc Ostwald, chief economist & global strategist at ADM Investor Service, says the data is much weaker than expected.

Sweden’s economy is in a poor run; GDP contracted by 0.8% in April-June 2023, then by 0.3% in July-September 2023, followed by a 0.1% contraction in October-December.