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{"id":92616,"date":"2024-10-08T12:42:00","date_gmt":"2024-10-08T12:42:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/financeworld24.com\/jenrick-damaged-his-tory-leadership-chances-at-conference-members-survey-suggests-uk-politics-live\/"},"modified":"2024-10-08T12:42:00","modified_gmt":"2024-10-08T12:42:00","slug":"jenrick-damaged-his-tory-leadership-chances-at-conference-members-survey-suggests-uk-politics-live","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/financeworld24.com\/jenrick-damaged-his-tory-leadership-chances-at-conference-members-survey-suggests-uk-politics-live\/","title":{"rendered":"Jenrick damaged his Tory leadership chances at conference, members survey suggests \u2013 UK politics live"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/gu-island><\/p>\n
\n
\n

Jenrick sabotaged his Tory leadership chances at conference, survey of members suggests, with Cleverly rising fast<\/h2>\n<\/header>\n

Conservative members were more likely to be turned off by what they saw of Robert Jenrick<\/a> at the party conference than impressed, a survey suggests.<\/p>\n

Jenrick arrived at the conference as the clear bookmakers\u2019 favourite. But, according to a ConservativeHome survey of Tory members<\/a>, only 23% of them said that what happened at conference made them more likely to support him \u2013 and 43% said they were less likely to support him afterwards.<\/p>\n

Tom Tugendhat experienced a similar loss of support \u2013 but he is expected to be out of the contest by the end of today anyway as the candidate most likely to be eliminated in today\u2019s ballot of MPs.<\/p>\n

Conservative members favour Kemi Badenoch<\/a> for next leader, according to numerous ConHome surveys, and proper polling, but 35% of respondents said conference made them less likely to support her, while 30% said the opposite.<\/p>\n

The survey suggests the big winner was James Cleverly<\/a>. Some 55% of Tories said conference made him a more attractive candidate, while only 14% said it didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

\n
\"Survey<\/picture><\/div>
<\/svg><\/span>Survey results on how leadership candidates performed at conference<\/span> Photograph: ConservativeHome<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The survey also suggests that, by a large margin, he was seen as delivering the best speech on the final day. Badenoch came second.<\/p>\n

\n
\"ConHome<\/picture><\/div>
<\/svg><\/span>ConHome survey results on best speech at Tory conference<\/span> Photograph: ConservativeHome<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

As a result of what happened at conference, Cleverly has now become the clear bookmakers\u2019 favourite. This chart from the <\/a>PoliticalBetting.com<\/a><\/strong> website<\/a>, showing the implied chances of winning, illustrates how that has happened.<\/p>\n

\n
\"Implied<\/picture><\/div>
<\/svg><\/span>Implied chances of winning for Tory leadership candidates, based on betting odds<\/span> Photograph: Political Betting website<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

ConservativeHome has a panel of Tory members and it regularly surveys them on leadership preferences. In the past it has been a reliable guide to Tory leadership elections<\/a> \u2013 always pointing to the right winner, if not by the correct margin.<\/p>\n

Jenrick came first in the last two ballots of Tory MPs. Some rightwingers are supporting him because they thought Badenoch would not make the final two (because she is a lot more popular with members than with MPs) and because they thought Jenrick would beat any of the likely \u201cleft\u201d candidates in the final two. But a survey at the weekend <\/a>suggests that is no longer true, which could provide an opening for Badenoch.<\/p>\n

In Tory terms, Badenoch and Jenrick are the two \u201cright\u201d candidates, while Cleverly and Tugendhat are the two \u201cleft\u201d ones. In non-Tory terms, they are all quite rightwing.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

James Cleverly is seen by voters as the Tory leadership candidate most likely to become prime minister, according to new polling<\/a> by Ipsos<\/strong>..<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”503d3265-22a2-4694-a597-1940ae6c117a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

In its write-up, Ipsos says:<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”a1adffb8-66cf-49a4-8225-2d0a29c06483″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

When asked which leadership candidate would be most likely to become prime minister if they become Conservative leader, one in five Britons say James Cleverly (21%) marking a 7-point increase since late September 2024 before Conservative party conference. Robert Jenrick trails behind at 10%, with Tom Tugendhat and Kemi Badenoch at 7% each. The main shift here being between those saying don\u2019t know (-6) and those saying Mr Cleverly is most likely (+7).<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

However, more than one in four still say they don\u2019t know (27%) and 28% think none of the candidates are likely to become prime minister.<\/p>\n

n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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on Tory leadership candidates”,”caption”:”Polling on Tory leadership candidates”,”credit”:”Photograph: Ipsos”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

But the polling also suggests, as the public heard and read about the last four candidates in the contest while the Tory conference was happening, all of them saw their net favourability ratings with the public at large go down. Cleverly\u2019s ratings only fell by 2 points, from -16 to -18. But Tom Tugendhat\u2019s fell by 6 points, and Kemi Badenoch\u2019s and Robert Jenrick\u2019s both fell by 8 points.<\/p>\n

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On this measure, Badenoch is the most unpopular candidate, with a net favourability rating of -26, followed by Jenrick (-24), Tugendhat (-19) and Cleverly (-18).<\/p>\n

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on Tory leadership candidates.”,”caption”:”Polling on Tory leadership candidates.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Polling on Tory leadership candidates\/Ipsos”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1728389746000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”08.15\u00a0EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1728390876000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”08.34\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1728390714000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”08.31\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”08.31″,”title”:”Voters see Cleverly as Tory leadership candidate with best chance of becoming PM, poll suggests”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 8 Oct 2024 08.42 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 8 Oct 2024 04.17 EDT”},{“id”:”670519948f082d63bdcc3db8″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

The UK population is estimated to have risen by 1.0% in the year to June 2023, the largest annual percentage increase since comparable data began in 1971, according to a report<\/a> from the Office for National Statistics<\/strong>. In its report on the figures PA Media says:<\/p>\n

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n <\/p>\n

Some 68,265,200 people were likely to have been resident in the UK in the middle of last year, up 662,400 from 67,602,800 12 months earlier.<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

The jump of 1.0% in the year to mid-2023 follows a rise of 0.9% in the year to mid-2022, according to the ONS.<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

It means the UK population is estimated to have increased by 1.28 million in the two years to mid-2023.<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

The rise of 662,400 in the 12 months to June 2023 is also the largest annual numerical increase since comparable data began in 1971.<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

Net international migration was the main contributor to the rise in population for all four countries of the UK in the year to mid-2023, the ONS said.<\/p>\n

n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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Asked about the figures at the Downing Street<\/strong> lobby briefing, the PM\u2019s spokesperson said Keir Starmer was determined to bring net migration down. The spokesperson said:<\/p>\n

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n <\/p>\n

The PM and the home secretary have been clear that overall net migration does need to come down, and we should end the situation where legal migration is used as an alternative to tackling skill shortages in the UK.<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

And indeed, we\u2019ve made announcements recently to achieve this, including the Migration Advisory Committee conducting annual assessments to highlight key sectors where labour market failures have led to rocketing overseas recruitment and the fact that rules around migrant sponsorship will be toughened to ensure employers guilty of flouting employment laws are banned from hiring from abroad.<\/p>\n

n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

“,”elementId”:”d96828a7-0b3d-4d57-8424-bd030be19211″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1728387476000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”07.37\u00a0EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1728388109000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.48\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1728387846000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.44\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.44″,”title”:”UK population up 1% to 68.3m, largest annual rise since 1971, largely due to net migration, ONS says”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 8 Oct 2024 08.42 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 8 Oct 2024 04.17 EDT”},{“id”:”670515da8f082d63bdcc3d99″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

According a Financial Times report<\/a>, the UK government\u2019s borrowing costs have risen sharply, \u201cfuelled by investor concerns about the Labour government\u2019s budget, pushing the gap with Germany to the widest in more than a year\u201d.<\/p>\n

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In their report, Ian Smith<\/strong> and Sam Fleming<\/strong> say:<\/p>\n

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n <\/p>\n

With three weeks to go to Rachel Reeves\u2019 first Budget, bondholders say the UK chancellor will have to walk a \u201ctightrope\u201d if she is to proceed with her borrowing and investment plans without triggering a gilt sell-off.<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

The spread between UK and German benchmark 10-year bond yields has already risen to 1.94 percentage points, its highest since August 2023, on worries Reeves will increase debt, as well as concerns about persistent inflation, investors say.<\/p>\n

n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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At the Downing Street lobby briefing this morning the PM\u2019s spokesperson said he did not accept the claim that uncertainty about what the government would do was pushing up borrowing costs. He said:<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”0008d9e3-0d63-4943-ab38-75d86a5dd9bd”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

I wouldn\u2019t accept that characterisation \u2026 One of the first steps of this government is to restore economic stability, The budget will absolutely deliver on that, delivering on the robust fiscal rules that were that were set out in the manifesto. That includes moving the current budget into balance, that includes debt as a share of the economy.<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

More broadly, the budget will be about fixing the foundations of the economy, delivering stability, because it\u2019s only with economic stability that we\u2019ll get the growth and investment that the economy needs, that public services need, and deliver the higher living standards for people across the country.<\/p>\n

n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

“,”elementId”:”e7101fce-930d-40a9-b5da-dffe7a613ca8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

Graeme Wearden<\/strong> has more on the government\u2019s rising borrowing costs on his business live blog.<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”a5c66e84-c690-42fa-b0f9-f9235af2de8f”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Shein\u2019s UK profits double; Water companies penalised for poor performance; China targets EU brandy \u2013 business live”,”elementId”:”da20567d-3d74-4580-a2cf-8c54cbc9bf31″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/business\/live\/2024\/oct\/08\/uk-borrowing-costs-climb-budget-water-companies-157m-penalty-poor-performance-pollution-leaks-business-live”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1728386522000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”07.22\u00a0EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1728387085000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”07.31\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1728387086000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”07.31\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”07.31″,”title”:”No 10 dismisses claims borrowing costs going up because of concerns about budget plans”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 8 Oct 2024 08.42 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 8 Oct 2024 04.17 EDT”},{“id”:”67050d338f08314bc7ac9df8″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

Yesterday Alastair Campbell,<\/strong> Tony Blair\u2019s former communictions chief, said a big reason why the government was in political difficulties<\/a> was the fact that it decided to wait almost 16 weeks from the election before holding a budget.<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”802eb71b-19cb-4628-b4e8-3f19b1c438d8″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

On the Today programme this morning Liam Byrne,<\/strong> the Labour<\/a> MP and former Treasury minister who chairs the Commons business committee, defended the government\u2019s decision to wait that long.<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”e72a63bd-1292-4222-a989-1c8ec32b75ce”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

Byrne said that, although there were \u201cvirtues getting the budget done fast\u201d, there were also good reasons for waiting until the end of October.<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”9efea756-e8e3-40a8-926f-b7f80518ab20″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

Campbell said that after the elections in. 1979, 1997 and 2010, budgets were held respectively five weeks later, eight weeks later and six weeks later.<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”fae51b40-4719-4dc1-99cd-9259e47bc04e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

But now the Office for Budget<\/a> Responsibility has to publish an economic assessmement alongside the budget, and that takes at least 10 weeks, Byrne said.<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”9d214a07-87e6-4d1b-a89b-a989f48c97e0″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

He also said there was an interest rate cut at the start of August, public sector pay deals were only agreed at the end of July, and new planning rules were published at the start of August. All these factors influence the budget, he argued. He went on:<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”9b66decf-b201-4714-9354-c16eb5f29d46″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

You definitely can do these things fast \u2013 Liz Truss did it in 18 days \u2013 but I think the whole country will thank the chancellor for not doing a Liz Truss, because now is the time to be strategic and not slapdash.<\/p>\n

n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

“,”elementId”:”23224d2e-a60f-485e-95d4-ff7b2c18a637″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

The budget will be on Wednesday 30 October.<\/p>\n

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Yesterday, in response to a question from Andrew Mitchell, his Tory shadow, about whether the Chagossians were consulted about the government\u2019s deal handing over sovereignty of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius, David Lammy<\/strong>, the foreign secrtary, said<\/a>: \u201cOf course we kept the Chagossians informed all along the way.\u201d<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”16280509-3a17-43e9-a8f7-bc0f62c7a91d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

Chagossian Voices,<\/strong> a group representing Chagossians, says Lammy was not telling the truth.<\/p>\n

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\n

We will be writing to @DavidLammy<\/a> and The Speaker of HOC. It was claimed in Parliament today that he and his team had met Chagossian groups to discuss the sovereignty negotiations. Neither we, nor any other groups we know have met him or his team to discuss this since the\u2026<\/p>\n

\u2014 Chagossian Voices (@ChagossianVoic2) October 7, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

nn”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

We will be writing to @DavidLammy and The Speaker of HOC. It was claimed in Parliament today that he and his team had met Chagossian groups to discuss the sovereignty negotiations. Neither we, nor any other groups we know have met him or his team to discuss this since the election. We learned about the announcement at 9.00am last Thursday in an email from the BBC.<\/p>\n

n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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\n

At a meeting with Chagossian groups about community support for Chagossians with FCDO Minister Doughty on 30th September (the first and only meeting) attendees were told he could not talk about the negotiations and they even confirmed this in an email (last four lines of extract\u2026 pic.twitter.com\/aLTWeLhBur<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Chagossian Voices (@ChagossianVoic2) October 8, 2024<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n

nn”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

At a meeting with Chagossian groups about community support for Chagossians with FCDO Minister Doughty on 30th September (the first and only meeting) attendees were told he could not talk about the negotiations and they even confirmed this in an email (last four lines of extract\u2026<\/p>\n

n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

“,”elementId”:”3aa2afba-87cf-479f-83c5-993c55346fe9″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

The Foreign Office has been approached for a comment. I will post their reply when I get it.<\/p>\n

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Political parties will be required to justify offering peerages under new rules being drafted by the government to overhaul the image of the House of Lords<\/a>. As Jessica Elgot<\/strong> reports, the move \u2013 which could involve similar citations as those when people receive honours from the monarch \u2013 is in response to a number of controversial appointments over the years including those of two of Boris Johnson\u2019s key aides and of Evgeny Lebedev<\/a>, the Independent\u2019s largest shareholder. Jess\u2019s full story is here.<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”1e240b73-7f5d-4c80-8e0d-cbbbd6da82ec”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Parties would have to justify House of Lords nominations under new rules”,”elementId”:”ea9560ed-9b86-4ac5-bf8d-cc7a60d5534c”,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/2024\/oct\/08\/house-of-lords-peerages-nominations-appointments-new-rules”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1728383700000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”06.35\u00a0EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1728383803000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”06.36\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1728383804000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”06.36\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”06.36″,”title”:”Parties would have to justify House of Lords nominations under new rules”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 8 Oct 2024 08.42 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 8 Oct 2024 04.17 EDT”},{“id”:”670506988f08314bc7ac9d9e”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

Today the Institute for Public Policy Research<\/strong> (IPPR) thinktank has published a report <\/a>saying Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, should change the government\u2019s fiscal rules and adopt a new measure of debt. Richard Partington<\/strong> has written about it here.<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”a68297c7-1545-4770-93c0-aaac06a76f3d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Rachel Reeves to decide by Wednesday whether to change fiscal rules”,”elementId”:”e367507b-85c4-4ed5-91a5-a320dd94adf6″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/2024\/oct\/08\/rachel-reeves-to-decide-by-wednesday-whether-to-change-fiscal-rules”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

On the Today programme this morning Mohamed El-Erian<\/strong>, one of Britain\u2019s leading economists, also said the fiscal framework needs to change. El-Erian, who is president of Queen\u2019s College, Cambridge, and chief economic adviser to Allianz, a fund manager, called for \u201ca rational adjustment to the fiscal rules\u201d. He explained:<\/p>\n

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n <\/p>\n

Right now the government\u2019s operating with a very arbitrary fiscal framework that it has inherited. It tends to be biased against investment, and it tends to undermine the one thing this country needs most, which is productivity and growth.<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

I would like to see the anti-investment biases taken out, so it means don\u2019t treat spending on current consumption as the same as spending on investment. They are fundamentally different in terms of the impact.<\/p>\n

n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

“,”elementId”:”3accc77d-c6e7-4677-9aef-c1f126ac1911″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

He also said the rules should be changed so they don\u2019t \u201capply arbitrary time horizons that have nothing to the underlying economics\u201d. Currently the debt rule just says debt should be falling as a proportion of the GDP in the fifth year of the forecast period \u2013 which means between year 4 looking ahead and year 5 looking ahead. It is a rolling target, and so every year year 5 is another five years in the future. El-Erian said:<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”eb5d3e16-25db-461f-bb3b-5618fa19d29e”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.BlockquoteBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

These are changes that are supported by the vast majority of economists, and they will be better for a government that\u2019s seeking growth, because that is what we need.<\/p>\n

n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

“,”elementId”:”eaa72e7d-9a4f-44cc-98d3-55733822b4ad”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1728382616000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”06.16\u00a0EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1728383606000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”06.33\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1728383607000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”06.33\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”06.33″,”title”:”Leading economist joins calls for ‘rational adjustment’ to government’s fiscal rules”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 8 Oct 2024 08.42 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 8 Oct 2024 04.17 EDT”},{“id”:”670503c68f08314bc7ac9d78″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

The prison system in England and Wales was \u201cteetering on disaster\u201d when Labour<\/a> came to power, James Timpson,<\/strong> the prisons minister said today.<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”204222ff-7ffb-4310-8ea0-540c59629df4″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

Speaking at his first Prison Governors\u2019 Association conference in Nottingham since he took on the role, Timpson said:<\/p>\n

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n <\/p>\n

It has not been easy to rehabilitate offenders in a system teetering on disaster.<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

We have to take the tough decisions bringing changes to release to ease the pressure on our prisons. It was quite frankly a rescue effort. If we had not acted our justice system would have grinded to a halt \u2013 we would have faced a total breakdown of law and order.<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

We only have to look at the recent disorder on our streets to see how close to catastrophe we came. We brought the violence to an end, but in the process we came dangerously close to running out of prisons entirely.<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

The last government allowed prisons to run so hot for so long, it was nothing short of a disgrace. We had no choice but to introduce emergency measures. To attempt to delay any further would have allowed our justice system to collapse.<\/p>\n

n <\/p>\n

The government will rebuild and reform the system. We will accelerate the prison building programme to make sure we have the cells we need.<\/p>\n

n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

“,”elementId”:”0df05097-0ef5-47d1-9202-fd0921a5fc5d”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

Timpson was a surprise appoinment<\/a> when Keir Starmer formed his government after the election. He used to run the eponymous family shoe repair business that has a good reputation for employing ex-offenders, and having him in charge of prisons has led to speculation that Labour\u2019s policy in this area will end up being more progressive than the Conservatives\u2019.<\/p>\n

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Timpson”,”caption”:”James Timpson”,”credit”:”Photograph: UK government”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1728381894000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”06.04\u00a0EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1728382506000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”06.15\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1728382506000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”06.15\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”06.15″,”title”:”Prison system was ‘teetering on disaster’ when Labour came to power, says minister”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 8 Oct 2024 08.42 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 8 Oct 2024 04.17 EDT”},{“id”:”670500e68f08b54ab86839e7″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

UK ministers are considering allowing the use of a bee-killing pesticide next year despite promising during the election to ban it, Helena Horton<\/strong> reports.<\/p>\n

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Conservative members were more likely to be turned off by what they saw of Robert Jenrick<\/a> at the party conference than impressed, a survey suggests.<\/p>\n

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Jenrick arrived at the conference as the clear bookmakers\u2019 favourite. But, according to a ConservativeHome survey of Tory members<\/a>, only 23% of them said that what happened at conference made them more likely to support him \u2013 and 43% said they were less likely to support him afterwards.<\/p>\n

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Tom Tugendhat experienced a similar loss of support \u2013 but he is expected to be out of the contest by the end of today anyway as the candidate most likely to be eliminated in today\u2019s ballot of MPs.<\/p>\n

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Conservative members favour Kemi Badenoch<\/a> for next leader, according to numerous ConHome surveys, and proper polling, but 35% of respondents said conference made them less likely to support her, while 30% said the opposite.<\/p>\n

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The survey suggests the big winner was James Cleverly<\/a>. Some 55% of Tories said conference made him a more attractive candidate, while only 14% said it didn\u2019t.<\/p>\n

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results on how leadership candidates performed at conference”,”caption”:”Survey results on how leadership candidates performed at conference”,”credit”:”Photograph: ConservativeHome”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

The survey also suggests that, by a large margin, he was seen as delivering the best speech on the final day. Badenoch came second.<\/p>\n

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survey results on best speech at Tory conference”,”caption”:”ConHome survey results on best speech at Tory conference”,”credit”:”Photograph: ConservativeHome”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

As a result of what happened at conference, Cleverly has now become the clear bookmakers\u2019 favourite. This chart from the <\/a>PoliticalBetting.com<\/a><\/strong> website<\/a>, showing the implied chances of winning, illustrates how that has happened.<\/p>\n

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chances of winning for Tory leadership candidates, based on betting odds”,”caption”:”Implied chances of winning for Tory leadership candidates, based on betting odds”,”credit”:”Photograph: Political Betting website”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

ConservativeHome has a panel of Tory members and it regularly surveys them on leadership preferences. In the past it has been a reliable guide to Tory leadership elections<\/a> \u2013 always pointing to the right winner, if not by the correct margin.<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”7a155bb0-ec94-45d6-b0f3-437a186e25d2″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

Jenrick came first in the last two ballots of Tory MPs. Some rightwingers are supporting him because they thought Badenoch would not make the final two (because she is a lot more popular with members than with MPs) and because they thought Jenrick would beat any of the likely \u201cleft\u201d candidates in the final two. But a survey at the weekend <\/a>suggests that is no longer true, which could provide an opening for Badenoch.<\/p>\n

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In Tory terms, Badenoch and Jenrick are the two \u201cright\u201d candidates, while Cleverly and Tugendhat are the two \u201cleft\u201d ones. In non-Tory terms, they are all quite rightwing.<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”c61b9caf-3f9f-402b-a4ac-9ce6305c57c5″}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:true,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1728378149000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”05.02\u00a0EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1728380506000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”05.41\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1728380377000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”05.39\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”05.39″,”title”:”Jenrick sabotaged his Tory leadership chances at conference, survey of members suggests, with Cleverly rising fast”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 8 Oct 2024 08.42 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 8 Oct 2024 04.17 EDT”},{“id”:”6704f13d8f0867fd8f339d0a”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

Keir Starmer\u2019s decision to accept clothing freebies \u201clooks greedy\u201d, Boris Johnson<\/strong>, the former Tory PM has claimed. As Jamie Grierson<\/strong> reports, Johnson, who is doing interviews to promote his much-ridiculed memoir<\/a>, seems to have forgotten his own record of freebie-harvesting on a lavish scale.<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”1c47e2e1-b541-4f32-8167-d583a2c164ea”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Boris Johnson hits out at \u2018greedy\u2019 Keir Starmer over freebies”,”elementId”:”5ff890f2-9a48-4e92-8727-7cb82b609169″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/2024\/oct\/08\/boris-johnson-hits-out-at-greedy-keir-starmer-over-freebies”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

Here is John Crace\u2019<\/strong>s digested read of the Johnson book, which is well worth a read (John\u2019s article \u2013 not the book, I\u2019m told).<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”463787a6-0f8e-42c2-8697-af56523b4685″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”\u2018If I have a fault, it\u2019s that I\u2019m too honest\u2019 \u2013 Boris Johnson\u2019s Unleashed, digested by John Crace”,”elementId”:”967e3ce5-eb9e-4c4d-accd-55a0eeffe8b1″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/books\/2024\/oct\/07\/boris-johnson-unleashed-memoir-digested-read-john-crace”}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1728377149000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”04.45\u00a0EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1728377488000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”04.51\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1728377488000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”04.51\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”04.51″,”title”:”Boris Johnson hits out at \u2018greedy\u2019 Keir Starmer over freebies”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 8 Oct 2024 08.42 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 8 Oct 2024 04.17 EDT”},{“id”:”6704ee5f8f080291b5187e7d”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

During her morning interview round Louise Haigh<\/strong>, the transport secretary, also all but confirmed that HS2 will be extended to Euston station in London.<\/p>\n

“,”elementId”:”4f3c73ee-1aa2-44d9-a216-d2f49eca8013″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

When Rishi Sunak announced that the last government was cancelling the Birmingham to Manchester leg of HS2, he said that it would definitely run to Old Oak Common, a station in west London.<\/p>\n

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He also indicated that the final stretch, a 4.5 mile tunnel from Old Oak Common to Euston, would go ahead too. But he said this was dependent on the project attracting private sector funding, which meant the government could not 100% confim it would be completed.<\/p>\n

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As PA Media reports, the Commons\u2019 public accounts committee issued a report in February stating it was \u201chighly sceptical\u201d that the Department for Transport would be able to attract private investment on \u201cthe scale and speed required\u201d to make extending HS2 to Euston \u201ca success\u201d.<\/p>\n

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Labour has inherited the last government\u2019s plans and has not yet said the Euston stretch will definitely go ahead.<\/p>\n

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But, in an interview on Times Radio this morning, asked if the Euston leg was affordable, Haigh replied:<\/p>\n

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n <\/p>\n

We will be making an announcement on that soon. But it certainly would never have made sense to leave it between Old Oak Common and Birmingham.<\/p>\n

n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

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Asked if the announcement may come in the budget, she said: \u201cIt may be made around those decisions.\u201d<\/p>\n

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Haigh arriving for cabinet this morning.”,”caption”:”Louise Haigh arriving for cabinet this morning.”,”credit”:”Photograph: Ben Whitley\/PA”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1728376415000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”04.33\u00a0EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1728377032000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”04.43\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1728377032000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”04.43\u00a0EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”04.43″,”title”:”Haigh comes close to confirming HS2 will run to Euston, saying ending it at Old Oak Common would not make sense”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Tue 8 Oct 2024 08.42 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Tue 8 Oct 2024 04.17 EDT”},{“id”:”6704ed8c8f08ecd42573583a”,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”<\/p>\n

Keir Starmer does not have a problem with women, the transport secretary, Louise Haigh<\/strong>, has said, adding that the prime minister had promoted a number of women \u2013 but she admitted the government had made \u201cmissteps\u201d. Jessica Elgot<\/strong> has the story.<\/p>\n

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Good morning. Labour has already been in office for almost 100 days, but in some respects it still feels like we\u2019re at the start of a new political season. This morning Keir Starmer is chairing his first cabinet since Morgan McSweeeney replaced Sue Gray as the key aide in No 10 (a move which could have radical implications, as Pippa Crerar reports here<\/a>), this afternoon Tory MPs are holding another ballot to elect their next leader, and, with the conference recess over, MPs are getting down to a busy three months of parliamentary business, with the budget only three weeks away tomorrow.<\/p>\n

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Labour won a big majority at the election, but the big story of politics in recent years is the fragementation of the electorate, and this morning the thinktank UK in a Changing Europe<\/strong> has published a major report<\/a> on the attitudes and voting behaviours of ethnic minority Britons. For anyone interested in this topic, it has lots of very good data, but two findings in particular stand out.<\/p>\n

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