Use of ‘culture wars’ phrase ‘a dog whistle to attack the right’ Badenoch tells GB News Tory leadership special – as it happened

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Conservative leadership candidates Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick took part in a GB News special tonight, setting out their vision for the Tory party. Moderated by Christopher Hope, the candidates covered subjects including immigration, culture wars and the European Court of Human Rights.

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Badenoch hit back at a Tory MP’s suggestion that she could not lead the party because she was too “preoccupied” with her children, saying “it isn’t always women who have parental responsibilities”. The Conservative leadership candidate was asked about the remarks made by Christopher Chope earlier on Thursday.

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Asked about the bullying allegations first published by the Guardian, she said “of course they run to the Guardian to tell lies about me”. It’s because she got the bad people out of her department, she says.

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Badenoch said she is an “engineer” who can fix the “broken system” and renew the Tory party. In her pitch to members, the leadership hopeful told the GB News debate: “This broken system is going to need an engineer to fix it. I am an engineer. But I cannot fix it without your help, that is why I’m asking for your support today. Together, we can do this. Together, we can fix the system that is broken. Together, we can renew.”

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Badenoch said Nigel Farage speaks with “clarity” and “conviction”. She told the GB News Tory leadership debate: “Nigel Farage speaks with clarity, he speaks with conviction. When people hear him speak, they believe that he understands their concerns. For a long time, when we were speaking, people just heard this technocratic, managerialist language that didn’t mean very much to people. It was all policy and no principles, that is why I keep emphasising principles.”

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Meanwhile, Jenrick claimed the government had relinquished sovereignty of the Chagos Islands “so that David Lammy can feel better when he goes to a dinner party in north London”. The Tory leadership hopeful told the GB News debate: “David Lammy and Keir Starmer have just handed sovereign British territory with a critical military base on it to a close ally of China. Why? So that David Lammy can feel better when he goes to a dinner party in north London. Whose interests does he think he serves?”

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Jenrick said he would cap migration in “the tens of thousands or lower” if he were in charge. Asked to put a number on his pledge to cap the number of people entering the UK, he said: “I would do the tens of thousands or lower. The most important point is we’ve got to get parliament to do this so we can look the public in the eye this time and say it’s actually going to happen.” He denied he was just making hardline remarks on immigration to win over Tory members.

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Jenrick claimed he had argued against the depletion of the armed forces while he served as a minister in the previous Tory government. He said: “Because I’m a fiscal Conservative, the easiest thing in the world would be to say you today, let’s spend more money on the armed forces without saying how are we going to get this money. I don’t want taxes to rise, I don’t want the state to get bigger, so I’ve said let’s take that money from our international aid budget and let’s spend it on our armed forces. That is the best way.”

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That’s all from me, Tom Ambrose, for tonight. Thanks for following along throughout what was, admittedly, not one of the great political TV specials of our time. Have a very pleasant evening, nevertheless.

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Are you being mean to Rob Jenrick by saying “if we get this wrong, there could be no party”? Badenoch says “we have to fight for our survival, we cannot be complacent”, referencing Reform as a big threat.

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What is Jenrick’s biggest weakness? “The weakness is in the argument that is made,” she says. “I think the ECHR argument is not the right one. It will divide our party and mean infighting will continue”. She adds that if we want to “end the drama” (used the old catchphrase against him there), the party needs to come together and find consensus.

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Is it possible to be party leader while being a mum? “Yes,” she says. “I might remind [Christopher Chope] that it isn’t always women that have parental responsibilities.”

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Should we pay stay-at-home parents? “We should look again at taxation on a family basis,” she says. “Those people that stay at home to look after children are providing a great contribution … and make it as easy for them as is possible to do so”.

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An audience member is asking Badenoch about culture wars. “When people use the phrase, it is a dog whistle to attack the right,” she says. “We are defending our culture, we are defending our country.”

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It is about doing what is right for our country and following conviction, she adds, before giving the Guardian yet another shout-out.

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“It is about being brave and not being scared that the Guardian is going to try and mock us, they are going to do that whoever the leader is”, she says.

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We are back on to the ECHR. Badenoch is asked if she agrees with Jenrick about leaving the ECHR.

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“If we need to leave the ECHR to control migration, then we should do it,” she says. “But it is not a silver bullet.”

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Harking back to the same question Jenrick faced, she raises the fact that other countries are able to deport people easier than Britain.

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She says Northern Ireland and women’s rights are areas that need to be considered before a decision to leave the ECHR is taken.

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“I will have a wholesale strategy [on immigration] across govenment. Numbers matter, culture matters more,” she says. “We all need to be moving in the same direction.”

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When asked to put a figure on migration by Hope, she backtracks and says “it’s not about the numbers”. Thirty seconds ago, she said “numbers matter”.

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Asked about the bullying allegations first published by the Guardian, she says “of course they run to the Guardian to tell lies about me”.

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It’s because she got the bad people out of her department, she says.

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“I don’t know how many of you believe what you read in the Guardian, but if you do, then you wouldn’t be here on GB News,” she says. Charming.

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Here we go, it’s time for the quick-fire questions. Jenrick is asked what Kemi Badenoch’s biggest weakness is but refuses to answer.

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Hope raises Christopher Chope’s comments earlier on today about whether a mum can be a party leader. “He’s wrong, he’s definitely wrong,” he says.

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Should stay-at-home mums receive payment in the tax system? Jenrick says he wants marriage to be rewarded in the tax system but says it’s difficult because that is not why people get married.

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Hope asks if Jenrick supports Ozempic on the NHS, to which he says “if others want to do it, good for them. I’m not going to tell people how to live their lives”.

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Did he take illegal drugs at university? No, says Jenrick.

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Here’s our report on Chope’s comments:

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The biggest applause of the night so far, in the studio of Conservative voters, is for Jenrick calling to take money from the foreign aid budget to spend on defence.

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“Let’s invest more in our armed forced, let’s get up to at least three per cent,” he says.

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In a follow-up question, he is asked about the Chagos Islands. It is a “disgrace”, he says, adding that he believes it has been done so that “David Lammy can feel better about himself at a north London dinner party”.

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“I would not sell out our overseas territories,” he says.

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Jenrick is now being asked about how he would tackle the housing crisis.

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“There are too few homes and too many young people trapped in their childhood bedrooms,” he says. He suggests making the “big cities” even denser by building on brownfield sites.”

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He adds: “We’ve got to get a new generation of young people to believe in us, to support us and to vote for us.”

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The first question from the audience is how to restore respect for the Conservative party after it’s recent trouncing at the ballot box.

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Jenrick says “I’m not just standing to be the leader of the opposition, I want to be the next prime minister” to muted applause.

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He raises immigration as the main issue facing Britain right now but it challenged by Hope on his own record in government, when immigration into Britain “ballooned”.

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Jenrick says he is in favour of capping migration to “the tens of thousands or lower”. He says he resigned from the cabinet over both legal and illegal migration.

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“I don’t want our party to keep making and breaking promises,” he says.

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Good evening. I’m Tom Ambrose and I’ll be bringing you all the latest from the showdown between the final two candidates to become Tory leader this evening.

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Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick will be put through their paces by moderator Christopher Hope, in front of an audience of Conservative members, on GB News from 7pm.

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Both candidates – who will be hoping to show the nation just why they are the best the Tories have to offer – will get five minutes to deliver an opening statement.

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They will then take questions from Hope and the GB News studio audience. It’s going to be a long two hours but let’s hope it gives us some sort of insight, one way or another, into what the Conservative party has to offer in 2024.

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I’ll be bringing you all the key moments and top lines from what is the fourth Tory leadership contest in almost as many years.

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A welfare watchdog has criticised the government’s decision to cut winter fuel payments for most pensioners.

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The social security advisory committee says the government should have carried out a full impact assessment before going ahead with the policy, and it says it is worried about the impact the policy will have on pensioner poverty.

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It also says it is not convinced by the government’s argument that it is addressing this issue by encouraging more people to apply for pension credit, a benefit that enables people who qualify to carry on getting the winter fuel payment.

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The committee, an independent statutory body set up to advise the government on welfare, has set out its comments in a letter to Liz Kendall, the work and pensions secretary. The letter was sent on 20 September, but was only published today.

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In the letter Stephen Brien, the committee’s chair, says:

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We were disappointed that an assessment of impact was not presented to the committee alongside the regulations on 11 September 2024. It has subsequently been confirmed that a full assessment of impact does not exist, with the prime minister commenting that it was not legally necessary and that “The impact will be mitigated by pension credit, by the housing benefit”^.

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Given the scale of pensioners who will be affected by this change, and the speed at which it is being introduced, we are not similarly reassured that this will be the case and are of the firm view that a more detailed assessment is urgently required, in particular, on the potential poverty impact.

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The committee makes various other recommendations, including saying people on full pensioner housing benefit should also continue to get the winter fuel payment, and demanding an assurance that enough staff are available to process new pension crediti claims.

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That is all from me for today. My colleague Tom Ambrose is taking over now.

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Nigel Farage has used a team of three US advisers to help him with “perception management” and public relations in America, as well as with settling a $3,500 hotel bill this summer, new documents show, Rowena Mason reports.

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The House of Commons wants you to tell it what it can do to make the place better. In particular, it wants to hear suggestions covering:

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n

-driving up standards;

n

-improving culture and working practices; and

n

-reforming parliamentary procedures to make the House of Commons more effective.

n

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The invitation is not just aimed at Guardian readers (although I am sure many of you have strong, and sensible, views, and I would encourage you to submit them). The Commons modernisation committee has opened a consultation inviting groups and individuals, inside parliament and outside, to propose ideas for reform.

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As it explains in its news release, submissions should be no more than 2,500 words and they should cover:

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n

1) What topic(s) do you think the modernisation committee should prioritise and how do they link to one or more of the strategic aims set out in the leader’s memorandum?

n

2) Why would the topic(s) benefit from the attention of the modernisation committee?

n

3) Are you aware of examples from other parliaments relevant to the topic(s) which may be interesting for the modernisation committee to consider?

n

4) Is there any existing work relevant to the topic(s) which you think the modernisation committee can build on?

n

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The committee is chaired by Lucy Powell, leader of the Commons. In a memo last month she set out some proposals for reform, including banning MPs from paid media work, but there are so many other topics it could cover it is hard to know where to start.

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You can submit ideas here. They have to be in before 3pm on 16 December.

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Paul Johnson is leaving his post as director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies thinktank next year. He has secured the dream job aspired to by members of the liberal intelligentsia elite – head of an Oxford college. Richard Partington has the story.

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At PMQs yesterday Keir Starmer was repeatedly asked by Rishi Sunak about Labour’s approach to China. Starmer implied that his government would be just as robust as the last Conservative government, and he was critical of Beijing over its hostility towards Taiwan, its suppression of rights in Hong Kong and its links with Russia.

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David Lammy, the foreign secretary, is due to visit China from tomorrow and Amnesty International UK has issued a statement saying it hopes Lammy is just as robust in private. Sacha Deshmukh, Amnesty’s chief executive, said:

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n

This visit is a crucial opportunity for the foreign secretary to demonstrate the government’s true commitment to challenging publicly and privately Beijing’s brutal suppression of human rights in China and Hong Kong.

n

Behind closed doors but also in public, David Lammy needs to tackle the Chinese government over its systematic, industrial-scale repression of ethnic minorities in Xinjiang and Tibet, its widespread imprisonment of peaceful activists and its completely unacceptable intimidation of students and campaigners here in the UK.

n

The prime minister’s statement that the immediate release of the unjustly-imprisoned UK businessman Jimmy Lai is a UK priority is welcome, and Mr Lammy should also seek to secure the immediate release of fellow prisoners of conscience Hong Kong lawyer-activist Chow Hang-tung and Chinese human rights lawyer Ding Jiaxi, as well as the long-held Uighur economist Ilham Tohti and #MeToo activists Sophia Huang Xueqin and Wang Jianbing.

n

Throughout this trip, the Government should ensure that talks on trade and security relations with China aren’t pursued at the expense of human rights.

n

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The Tory MP Christopher Chope defended his comments about Kemi Badenoch (see 12.57pm) in a subsequent interview with Andrew Neil on Times Radio. Chope said that Badenoch and Robert Jenrick could both be “excellent party leaders”. And he said that there was “a lot of mischief-making going on” and that he was being misprepresented.

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n

I repeat the point which I was making before, and that is that Kemi has got a young family and so it’s less likely that she’s going to be able to spend as much time as is required as somebody who hasn’t got the commitments of a young family.

n

Now, that’s not suggesting she’s unsuited or anything like that to be the leader of the opposition …

n

All I’m saying is that one of the candidates has got a younger family than the other one, and has also got a record of wanting to spend more time with her family than engage in going to far-flung constituencies.

n

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Chope also said that, when he was a junior minister in the early 1990s, he was the father of a young baby.

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Almost half of Conservative councillors polled this week believe that neither Robert Jenrick nor Kemi Badenoch will be able to win the next election, and a significant minority said they did not plan to vote in the leadership contest, Jessica Elgot reports.

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In an interview broadcast this morning, Michael Gove, the former Tory cabinet minister and an ally of Kemi Badenoch’s, said that, although Robert Jenrick had strengths as a leadership candidate, one problem was that he looked like a “Tory boy”. (See 9.47am.)

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Now the Jenrick campaign has hit back. A spokesperson for Jenrick said:

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n

Michael Gove and his acolytes have been responsible for so much of the infighting and drama that has led our party to where it is.

n

Rob’s going to end that drama and the excuses that followed and just deliver for our country.

n

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The school absence rate for England for the autumn and spring terms of 2023-24 was down on the same period the year before – but still much higher than pre-pandemic, according to figures out from the Department for Education.

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The overall absence rate in the autumn and spring terms of 2023-24 was 6.9%, down from 7.3% the previous year, the DfE says. That figure covers primary schools, secondary schools and special schools. Pre-pandemic, the comparable figures were below 5%.

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Today’s figures also show that 19.2% of pupils were persistent absentees, meaning they missed 10% or more of school sessions. The equivalent figure for 2022-23 was 21.2%

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Commenting on the figures, Paul Whiteman, general secretary at school leaders’ union NAHT, said:

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n

Schools are working incredibly hard to boost attendance, and it is positive that these figures have improved overall year on year. However, the reasons for absence often lie beyond the school gates, and it is clear schools need more support to tackle unauthorised absence and the often deep-rooted issues facing children and families.

n

These include everything from sickness and mental health problems, to poverty and other social challenges. Previous governments failed to properly fund vital services like social care and CAMHS, while important roles like education welfare officers were cut.

n

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Downing Street has said that government departments will have to become “more productive” in response to the funding challenges facing the government.

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The PM’s spokesperson used the phrase at the morning lobby briefing, where he also played down reports suggesting that some ministers are complaining strongly about the spending settlements they have been offered by the Treasury.

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The spokesperson said that the overall spending total for Whitehall has now been agreed – but he said some departmental spending budgets within that total were still being negotiated.

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Asked about reports that ministers have been writing to Keir Starmer directly with concerns about their budget settlement, the spokesperson said:

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n

I am obviously not going to get drawn into specifics of spending review discussions, but clearly engagement between departments and the Treasury and No 10 ahead of the budget and a spending review are a standard part of the process where departments will set out their priorities and the challenges that they are facing.

n

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The spokeperson said government departments would “have to become more productive” and may need to undertake reforms.

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n

Not every department will be able to do everything they want to. There will be tough decisions taken, there will be tough conversations, but ultimately this government has been very clear that it will fix the foundations, it will fix the position in relation to the public finances.

n

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Explaining what has already been agreed, he said:

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n

The prime minister and the chancellor have agreed what is known as the major measures … which have been submitted to the OBR [Office for Budget Responsibility] as per a timetable that is set out on the OBR website.

n

That submission includes the overall spending envelope, which is now closed, and then individual departmental spending review negotiations are now being concluded.

n

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The Conservative MP Christopher Chope has said that he is backing Robert Jenrick for Tory leader, not Kemi Badenoch, partly because he thinks having three young children will distract her.

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In an interview with ITV Meridian, Chope said:

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n

I myself am supporting Robert Jenrick because I think he’s brought more energy and commitment to the campaign, and being leader of the opposition is a really demanding job.

n

And, much as I like Kemi, I think she’s preoccupied with her own children, quite understandably. I think Robert’s children are a bit older, and I think that it’s important that whoever leads the opposition has got an immense amount of time and energy.

n

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When it was put to him that he was saying a woman with young children could not lead a political party, Chope denied that. He said that he was one of Margaret Thatcher’s strongest supporters (although both Thatcher’s two children were in their 20s when she became Tory leader.)

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He also said that he understood “talking to colleagues that Kemi spends a lot of time with her family”. That was not possible to combine with being opposition leader, he claimed.

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NEW: Conservative MP Sir Christopher Chope says Kemi Badenoch is “preoccupied with her children” and “you can't spend all your time with your family at the same time as being leader of the opposition”.

He was speaking on this month's @itvmeridian The Last Word. @itvnewspolitics pic.twitter.com/1qUF9Do7A6

— Kit Bradshaw (@kitbradshaw) October 17, 2024

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Badenoch and Jenrick both have three children. Jenrick’s are 13, 11 and nine. Badenoch’s are younger, but not by much. They are 12, seven and five.

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Speaking on the same ITV Meridien programme, the Labour MP Helena Dollimore said:

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n

I think many women will be shocked by those comments.

n

I’m really proud that we live in a country where we’ve had women who have become prime minister, we’ve got the first woman chancellor at the moment, I think there should be no barrier to women standing in public life.

n

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Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary, has told MPs that magistrates are getting powers to sentence offenders for longer – to reduce the number of prisoners being held on remand and to cut the backlog in crown courts

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In a statement to MPs, she said that, although this would increase the prison population slightly, by reducing the number of offenders being held on remand it would free up spaces in reception prisons where overcrowding is particularly serious.

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She said that there are currently 17,000 prisoners on remand in England and Wales, accouting for almost a fifth of the entire jail population. She said:

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n

Unless we address our remand population, we could still see a collapse of the system, not because of a lack of cells, but because we do not have those cells in the places that we need them. It is therefore crucial that we bear down on the remand population.

n

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Mahmood said magistrates currently only have the power to sentence people to up to six months in jail. She said the last government, between May 2022 and March 2023, allowed magistrates to sentence people to up to 12 months, and this meant magistrates could hear more cases, and those cases got dealt with more quickly.

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But the last government went back to six months when pressure on prison places became too great, she said.

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Mahmood told MPs, that because of early release measures taken by Labour to reduce overcrowding, she was now reverting to giving magistrates the power to sentence people for up to 12 months. The change will come into force on 18 November, she said.

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Explaining how this would help the criminal justice system, she went on:

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n

This government inherited a record crown court backlog. Waits for trials have grown so long that some cases are not heard for years.

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The impact on victims of crime is profound. For some justice delayed is, as the old saying goes, justice denied as victims choose to withdraw from the justice process altogether rather than face the pain of a protracted legal battle.

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By extending magistrates’ powers, we will be able to make progress on addressing the crown court backlog, and we will free the crown court to take on more of the cases that only they can hear.

n

This measure is expected to free up an equivalent of 2,000 sitting days within the crown court each year, which will add capacity on top of the additional 500 sitting days that this government funded on taking office.

n

This measure will, in total, see a slight increase in the overall prison population, but by bearing down on the remand population of our reception prisons, we will create capacity where we need it most. This measure allows us to manage our prison population smartly, and it means we can both address our prisons crisis and tackled the courts’ backlog.

n

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The Foreign Office has announced a fresh round of sanctions against Russian oil tankers and liquified gas tankers. It has sanctioned 18 oil tankers, four liquified gas tankers, and the Russian gas company Rusgazdobycha JSC.

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In a statement, David Lammy said Britain was “leading the charge against Putin’s desperate and dangerous attempts to cling on to his energy revenues”. He added:

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n

I have made it my personal mission to constrain the Kremlin, closing the net around Putin and his mafia state using every tool at my disposal.

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The sanctions cover tankers from what is described as Russia shadow fleet. Ships that are sanctioned are banned from UK ports.

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Kim Leadbeater, the Labour MP introducing the private member’s bill to legalise assisted dying, has invited the archbishop of Canterbury to meet her after he described a change in the law as dangerous, Harriet Sherwood reports.

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As mentioned earlier, there is still a lot of budget talk around – as there will be for the next fortnight. Here are three articles worth reading.

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• n

  Steven Swinford, Oliver Wright and Patrick Maguire in the Times splash say Rachel Reeves will raise capital gains tax – but not for second homes. They report:

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n

The Times has been told that capital gains on profits from the sale of shares, which is currently levied at a higher rate of 20 per cent, is likely to rise by “several percentage points” …

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As well as raising capital gains on share profits, Reeves is also expected to end some reliefs in the current regime to increase potential revenues as she seeks to repair the public finances and avoid a return to austerity.

n

One government source suggested that revenues from increasing capital gains tax would be in the “low billions”.

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The chancellor will leave the rate of capital gains tax on the sale of second homes and buy-to-let properties untouched amid concerns that increasing it would cost money.

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Thursday’s TIMES (updated) One Direction / Liam Payne #TomorrowsPapersToday pic.twitter.com/k1Pg3DY4dx

— Allie Hodgkins-Brown (@AllieHBNews) October 16, 2024

nn”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

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• n

  Tom Baldwin in the Spectator says the Keir Starmer is becoming more focused on explaining what the government will do to improve things for people and a budget-related document will be published helping with this. He says:

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n

The renewed focus is on Rachel Reeves’s first Budget on 30 October. ‘We know it will be a fight and it’s important we pick the right one,’ said one senior aide. Although everyone within Downing Street to whom I’ve spoken in recent days insists that the missions are not being abandoned, that there is a ‘narrowing, focusing and tightening’ around a series of ‘tangible and deliverable goals for working people’. These will be ‘staging posts that tell a story to the country about where we want to be in two, three and four years’ time’.

n

n Starmer is understood to be working on a document with Reeves and Pat McFadden at the Cabinet Office using a mass of polling evidence commissioned by [chief of staff Morgan] McSweeney. Provisionally titled ‘Priorities for Change’, this is expected to be published before the budget so that identifiable connections between the missions run through what the Treasury decides to do.

n

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• n

  Sam Coates at Sky News says some departments missed a deadline last night for agreeing their spending settlements with the Treasury. He says:

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n

A number of departments have still been unable to agree with the Treasury the scale of cuts they will be expected to deliver in the next two years, despite discussions stretching back to July.

n

Close of play on Wednesday was meant to be the deadline for all major measures agreed for the budget to be sent to the spending watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility.

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After this moment, only small changes are meant to be possible in the budget and spending review for the financial year beginning next April.

n

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Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leadership candidate, has said that she would offer JK Rowling a peerage if she became party leader. As equalities minister Badenoch was instrumental in getting the UK government to block the Scottish parliament’s gender recognition reform bill, which would have drastically simplified the process for trans people wanting to obtain a gender recognition certificate confirming their change of gender. JK Rowling, the author, was one of the leading gender critical feminists opposing the change, and she and Badenoch became allies in opposing the extension of trans rights. They say they are defending sex-based rights.

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As the Times reports, asked if she would offer Rowling a peerage in an interview with Talk TV, Badenoch replied:

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n

I would. I don’t know whether she would take it, but I certainly would give her a peerage.

n

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She also said that people like her and Rowling had been “attacked relentlessly by all sorts of oddballs and bad people” because of their views on sex and gender.

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Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, was doing a media round this morning to highlight the news that primary schools in England can now bid for government money to set up nurseries.

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The Department for Education says in a news release:

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n

Primary schools can now apply for up to £150,000 of £15 million capital funding, with the first stage of the plan set to support up to 300 new or expanded nurseries across England.

n

This comes as 321,462 additional children are now accessing 15 hours of government-funded early education per week, since the government delivered on the promises made to parents for the second phase of the childcare rollout last month.

n

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Under plans first announced by the last government, working parents with children aged 9-months or older were eligible for 15 hours of free nursery care per week from September this year. It is due to rise to 30 hours from September next year.

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But there is concern there are not enough places to meet the demand. Phillipson said in interviews this morning today’s announcement would help to expand capacity.

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She also said that in some parts of the country the shortage was “very stark”. She told the Today programme:

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n

We’re also publishing more information about where there are gaps at a local level, so that providers have got a better sense of where the gaps are, so that they can look to create more capacity in those areas where we have the fewest places, and in some parts of the country it’s very stark. You know, for every child, you know there is, there is a real gap.

n

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In its news release about these figures the DfE says:

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n

According to the Department for Education’s latest projections, around 70,000 additional places and 35,000 early years educators will still be needed to deliver the expansion to 30 hours next September, with some of the most disadvantaged areas in need of the largest uplifts.

n

Published for the first time, the projections show that around half of local areas need to increase their capacity by between 10% and 20% to meet demand for September. Some need an uplift of more than 20% – with areas that see traditionally lower household incomes including Northumberland, Plymouth and Rotherham all in this group.

n

That’s why the government is taking action now, and providing schools, private providers and local authorities a clear picture of the department’s understanding of demand, and where there are gaps in supply.

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Phillipson”,”caption”:”Bridget Phillipson “,”credit”:”Photograph: Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publishing/Getty Images”}}],”attributes”:{“pinned”:false,”keyEvent”:true,”summary”:false},”blockCreatedOn”:1729153328000,”blockCreatedOnDisplay”:”04.22 EDT”,”blockLastUpdated”:1729157507000,”blockLastUpdatedDisplay”:”05.31 EDT”,”blockFirstPublished”:1729157507000,”blockFirstPublishedDisplay”:”05.31 EDT”,”blockFirstPublishedDisplayNoTimezone”:”05.31″,”title”:”Phillipson says nursery place shortages ‘very stark’, with half of England 10% down on what’s needed for 30-hour offer”,”contributors”:[],”primaryDateLine”:”Thu 17 Oct 2024 16.58 EDT”,”secondaryDateLine”:”First published on Thu 17 Oct 2024 04.06 EDT”},{“id”:”6710d2fb8f08d409706ce2d6″,”elements”:[{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Arriving at the meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels, John Healey, the defence secretary, has confirmed that Britain is putting thousands of troops on standby to deploy to Estonia’s border with Russia. PA Media says:

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n

Soldiers in the army’s 4th Brigade will be held at “high readiness” in order to defend Nato’s eastern flank with Russia, under a new co-operation agreement Healey will sign with his Estonian counterpart …

n

Some 1,000 British troops are already deployed in Estonia. If deployed, 4th Brigade troops – who are specialists in operating in Estonia’s Baltic terrain – could be sent there alongside helicopters and rocket launchers.

n

The 4th Brigade, based at Bourlon Barracks, North Yorkshire, would be deployed within 10 days if called up to travel to Estonia under the plans.

n

The army’s most advance tanks, the Challenger 3, as well as the Boxer armoured vehicle, could also be deployed in Estonia in future years.

n

Army brigades differ in size, but as many as 5,000 troops could be placed on standby under the pact, which will begin in July 2025.

n

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Michael Gove, the former Tory cabinet minister who is now editor of the Spectator, has said that having Robert Jenrick as leader might hold the Tories back because he looks like a “Tory boy”.

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Gove has long been a strong supporter of Kemi Badenoch, who worked for him as a junior minister in the communities department, and so it is not surprising that, when asked about both candidates in an interview for the Today programme’s podcast, he chose to praise her more than Jenrick.

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But Gove would not confirm that he was voting for Badenoch, claiming that the Spectator was more interested in backing causes than candidates, and that his personal endorsement might be counter-productive.

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Asked about the candidates, he said they were both friends of his. He went on:

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n

Robert’s strengths are diligence, rigour, hunger. He is someone who has focused in on some of the big questions that have been the Conservative party’s internal conversation. And he has answers; you may not like them, but he has precise and specific solutions.

n

Now, I think one of Robert’s weaknesses, and I speak as someone who has the same déformation professionnelle, he looks like a typical Tory politician.

n

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When it was put to him that he was accusing Jenrick of being a “Tory boy”, Gove went on:

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n

So am I. It’s a stain that I bear. And given the strength of feeling against Tory boys expressed at the last general election, that’s a challenge.

n

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Asked about Badenoch, he said:

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n

I’m very fond of Kemi because at a critical moment when I was running for the leadership in 2019 she was conspicuously brave in my defence, when she didn’t need to be. And courage is Kemi’s hallmark.

n

So one of the criticisms directed at her is that she’s too willing to get involved in a scrap. I actually think it is a virtue.

n

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Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, was on the media round on behalf of No 10 this morning. In an interview on the Today programme, asked if she was one of the cabinet ministers who have written to the PM complaining about their departmental spending allocation in the budget, she refused to say. She replied:

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n

There are lots of conversations happening right now across government, between the chancellor, with members of the cabinet, as you would expect in the usual way as part of the budget process.

n

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Asked if the education budget was protected, she replied:

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n

Education is always a priority for Labour governments.

n

What I’d say to you is you don’t have too long to wait to hear the chancellor announce her budget in just under a fortnight, so I’m afraid everyone’s going to have to wait until 30 October to see exactly what’s in the budget.

n

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According to the Times, the ministers who have written to the PM include Angela Rayner, the deputy PM and housing secretary, Shabana Mahmood, the justice secretary, and Louise Haigh, the transport secretary. In their story, Oliver Wright, Patrick Maguire and Steven Swinford say:

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n

Sources said there was concern “right across the cabinet”, and particularly in departments whose spending was “unprotected” …

n

A senior Treasury source said that ministers had not understood the scale of the challenge facing Reeves. “They’re using a classic trade union negotiating tactic,” the source said. “But we don’t have any spare cash lying around to give them. This is only phase one of the spending review — as soon as the budget is over, we’re going to have to do this all over again.”

n

Allies of the chancellor admitted that her decision to prioritise long-term investment over day-to-day spending in the budget had alienated colleagues. “Investment is a key part of this budget and is in the top three things we can actually deliver before the next election,” a source said.

n

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Good morning. Members of the Conservative party have started getting their ballot papers for the leadership election, and this evening Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick will take part in what may be the only TV event of this stage of the contest – a hustings on GB News starting at 7pm. They won’t go head to head, but they each take questions for an hour. We will be covering it live (although a colleague will be at the helm, not me).

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Badenoch remains the bookmakers’ favourite, but Jenrick gets a boost today from Electoral Calculus polling, reported in the Telegraph, suggesting that the Tories would do better with him as leader. In his write-up, Charles Hymas says:

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n

Mr Jenrick, the former immigration minister, would win 50 extra seats if he was leader of the Tories compared with 30 seats that would be gained if Kemi Badenoch, his rival for the top job, was in charge of the party, according to the poll of nearly 6,300 people by Electoral Calculus …

n

Under Mr Jenrick, the Conservatives would increase their number of seats from 121 to 178, with Labour falling from 412 to 311, the Liberal Democrats dropping from 72 to 58 and Reform rising from five to 24. That would place Labour 14 seats short of a majority.

n

Under Mrs Badenoch, the Conservatives would increase their number of seats from 121 to 151, while Labour would fall from 412 to 332, the Lib Dems would dip from 72 to 63 and Reform rise from five to 25. That would see Labour in government with a 14-seat majority.

n

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Calculus polling on how Tories would do with Badenoch and Jenrick as leader”,”caption”:”Electoral Calculus polling on how Tories would do with Badenoch and Jenrick as leader”,”credit”:”Photograph: Telegraph”}},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

This is interesting, but only up to a point, for two reasons. First, the performance gap between Jenrick and Badenoch, according to these figures, and in truth no one can be sure who would be best for the Tories because voters don’t know a huge amount about either of them, and it is impossible to know for sure how they would perform as leaders. And, second, Conservative members aren’t always very interested in picking the candidate most popular with the electorate at large (which is partly why things started going wrong for them).

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I will post more on the Tories as the day goes on. Apart from the GB News hustings, the diary is relatively light today, but there is still a lot of talk about the budget. As Eleni Courea reports, some cabinet ministers have been writing to Keir Starmer complaining about the cuts they are being asked to implement.

“,”elementId”:”182b25a1-6a2e-47dc-bad0-5d0ec090ae3a”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.RichLinkBlockElement”,”prefix”:”Related: “,”text”:”Cabinet ministers contest chancellor’s planned cuts to their departments”,”elementId”:”bd7a8854-bc89-4d2e-a4ae-ae074ccc0779″,”role”:”thumbnail”,”url”:”https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2024/oct/16/rachel-reeves-tax-rises-spending-cuts-budget”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

Here is the agenda for the day.

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Morning: John Healey, the defence secretary, attends a meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels.

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9.30am: Lisa Nandy, the culture secretary, takes questions in the Commons.

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9.30am: The Office for National Statistics publishes figures on the disability pay gap.

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9.30am: The Department for Education publishes figures on pupil absences in England.

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10.30am: Lucy Powell, leader of the Commons, takes questions on next week’s Commons business.

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11.30am: Downing Street holds a lobby briefing.

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7pm: Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick take part in a leadership hustings on GB News. They will be questioned by party members, separately, with Christopher Hope, the GB News political editor, presenting.

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If you want to contact me, please post a message below the line (BTL) or message me on social media. I can’t read all the messages BTL, but if you put “Andrew” in a message aimed at me, I am more likely to see it because I search for posts containing that word.

“,”elementId”:”dc303c8e-69d5-4dda-bbcc-79e067c38fac”},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

If you want to flag something up urgently, it is best to use social media. I’m still using X and I’ll see something addressed to @AndrewSparrow very quickly. I’m also trying Bluesky (@andrewsparrowgdn) and Threads (@andrewsparrowtheguardian).

“,”elementId”:”812bf034-affc-4603-8445-a2ce42071427″},{“_type”:”model.dotcomrendering.pageElements.TextBlockElement”,”html”:”

I find it very helpful when readers point out mistakes, even minor typos (no error is too small to correct). And I find your questions very interesting too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either BTL or sometimes in the blog.

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You can read our report on the debate by our senior political correspondent Peter Walker here

Closing summary

• Conservative leadership candidates Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick took part in a GB News special tonight, setting out their vision for the Tory party. Moderated by Christopher Hope, the candidates covered subjects including immigration, culture wars and the European Court of Human Rights.

• Badenoch hit back at a Tory MP’s suggestion that she could not lead the party because she was too “preoccupied” with her children, saying “it isn’t always women who have parental responsibilities”. The Conservative leadership candidate was asked about the remarks made by Christopher Chope earlier on Thursday.

• Asked about the bullying allegations first published by the Guardian, she said “of course they run to the Guardian to tell lies about me”. It’s because she got the bad people out of her department, she says.

• Badenoch said she is an “engineer” who can fix the “broken system” and renew the Tory party. In her pitch to members, the leadership hopeful told the GB News debate: “This broken system is going to need an engineer to fix it. I am an engineer. But I cannot fix it without your help, that is why I’m asking for your support today. Together, we can do this. Together, we can fix the system that is broken. Together, we can renew.”

• Badenoch said Nigel Farage speaks with “clarity” and “conviction”. She told the GB News Tory leadership debate: “Nigel Farage speaks with clarity, he speaks with conviction. When people hear him speak, they believe that he understands their concerns. For a long time, when we were speaking, people just heard this technocratic, managerialist language that didn’t mean very much to people. It was all policy and no principles, that is why I keep emphasising principles.”

• Meanwhile, Jenrick claimed the government had relinquished sovereignty of the Chagos Islands “so that David Lammy can feel better when he goes to a dinner party in north London”. The Tory leadership hopeful told the GB News debate: “David Lammy and Keir Starmer have just handed sovereign British territory with a critical military base on it to a close ally of China. Why? So that David Lammy can feel better when he goes to a dinner party in north London. Whose interests does he think he serves?”

• Jenrick said he would cap migration in “the tens of thousands or lower” if he were in charge. Asked to put a number on his pledge to cap the number of people entering the UK, he said: “I would do the tens of thousands or lower. The most important point is we’ve got to get parliament to do this so we can look the public in the eye this time and say it’s actually going to happen.” He denied he was just making hardline remarks on immigration to win over Tory members.

• Jenrick claimed he had argued against the depletion of the armed forces while he served as a minister in the previous Tory government. He said: “Because I’m a fiscal Conservative, the easiest thing in the world would be to say you today, let’s spend more money on the armed forces without saying how are we going to get this money. I don’t want taxes to rise, I don’t want the state to get bigger, so I’ve said let’s take that money from our international aid budget and let’s spend it on our armed forces. That is the best way.”

That’s all from me, Tom Ambrose, for tonight. Thanks for following along throughout what was, admittedly, not one of the great political TV specials of our time. Have a very pleasant evening, nevertheless.

The GB News special ended about half an hour ago but if you were left hungry for more from the leadership special, here is a smorgasbord of reaction on X:

Robert Jenrick, is 42 years old. He's just said on GB News that he has “served in the government of the last five prime ministers.” Just completely hilarious that that is actually true.

— Tom Peck (@tompeck) October 17, 2024

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Robert Jenrick, is 42 years old. He’s just said on GB News that he has “served in the government of the last five prime ministers.” Just completely hilarious that that is actually true.

— Tom Peck (@tompeck) October 17, 2024

Robert Jenrick couldn’t appear less substantial if he tried in leadership debate

— John Crace (@JohnJCrace) October 17, 2024

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Robert Jenrick couldn’t appear less substantial if he tried in leadership debate

— John Crace (@JohnJCrace) October 17, 2024

This was probably Robert Jenrick's last chance to change the course of the Tory leadership race. Kemi Badenoch romped it.

— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) October 17, 2024

nn”}}”>

This was probably Robert Jenrick’s last chance to change the course of the Tory leadership race. Kemi Badenoch romped it.

— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) October 17, 2024

It's really impressive that Robert Jenrick managed to rise to Cabinet level when it turns out that he spent his whole time in office arguing against everything the government was doing.

— Robert Hutton (@RobDotHutton) October 17, 2024

nn”}}”>

It’s really impressive that Robert Jenrick managed to rise to Cabinet level when it turns out that he spent his whole time in office arguing against everything the government was doing.

— Robert Hutton (@RobDotHutton) October 17, 2024

Kemi Badenoch is knocking it out of the park on #GBNews debate tonight. She’s raw, but she’s got that magical something required of political leaders. She would be a formidable leader of the opposition.

— Sasha Swire (@SashaSwire) October 17, 2024

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Kemi Badenoch is knocking it out of the park on #GBNews debate tonight. She’s raw, but she’s got that magical something required of political leaders. She would be a formidable leader of the opposition.

— Sasha Swire (@SashaSwire) October 17, 2024

Robert Jenrick’s team has said “politicians should have policies” after his leadership rival Kemi Badenoch spent much of her pitch to members suggesting that “principles” are a bigger priority.

A spokesperson for Jenrick said: “Politicians should have policies – they do matter. None more so than on immigration.

“We won’t regain people’s trust unless we set out what we’d do differently this time.

“After the comparative performances tonight, the case for a real head-to-head debate is even stronger. Party members deserve to see these candidates debate the big challenges facing our country.”

There we go then. It’s over.

A poll of raised hands in the studio audience indicates an overwhelming majority would prefer Kemi Badenoch as Tory leader.

Jenrick, although light on policy, did at least set out his stall for what his leadership would look like. It mainly involves re-running the ECHR as a sort of Brexit 2.0. He wants people to decide if they are “leave or remain” like it’s 2016 all over again.

By contrast, Badenoch was very open in admitting she had not given much thought to policy, instead focusing much of her time on culture war issues and her general dislike for the Guardian.

Should we be embarrassed about our colonial past? “No … there are many countries now that want to use guilt to exploit the UK,” she says. “These arguments are a scam – don’t fall for it.”

Would you reverse VAT on private school bills? “That is the very first thing I would do if I become prime minister,” she says, before quickly clarifying “or one of the first things I will do”.

Do you allow your children to use social media? “No.”

Have you ever taken drugs? “No, never.”

Would you legalise cannabis? “No.”

Would you bring back fox hunting? She says it’s not a priority for her right now.

Donald Trump or Kamala Harris? “I like both of them equally,” she says, laughing.

Would Nigel Farage be welcome as a Tory member? “We are a broad church but if somebody says they want to burn your church down, you don’t let them in.”

Assisted suicide – how would you vote? “Let’s see what that bill looks like.”

‘It isn’t always women that have parental responsibility,’ Badenoch says after Chope attack

Are you being mean to Rob Jenrick by saying “if we get this wrong, there could be no party”? Badenoch says “we have to fight for our survival, we cannot be complacent”, referencing Reform as a big threat.

What is Jenrick’s biggest weakness? “The weakness is in the argument that is made,” she says. “I think the ECHR argument is not the right one. It will divide our party and mean infighting will continue”. She adds that if we want to “end the drama” (used the old catchphrase against him there), the party needs to come together and find consensus.

Is it possible to be party leader while being a mum? “Yes,” she says. “I might remind [Christopher Chope] that it isn’t always women that have parental responsibilities.”

Should we pay stay-at-home parents? “We should look again at taxation on a family basis,” she says. “Those people that stay at home to look after children are providing a great contribution … and make it as easy for them as is possible to do so”.

Asked how she plans to get more out of the NHS, Badenoch says she wants reforms to be carried out in partnership with the service.

“We have given it more money than before, we literally put a sign on the side of a bus,” she says. “Many people don’t know that we gave it double that.”

And that’s it for the live audience segment of Badenoch’s pitch to Tory members. Next up, it’s the quick-fire questions from people at home.

Culture wars is ‘a dog whistle to attack the right’ says Badenoch

An audience member is asking Badenoch about culture wars. “When people use the phrase, it is a dog whistle to attack the right,” she says. “We are defending our culture, we are defending our country.”

It is about doing what is right for our country and following conviction, she adds, before giving the Guardian yet another shout-out.

“It is about being brave and not being scared that the Guardian is going to try and mock us, they are going to do that whoever the leader is”, she says.

Leaving ECHR not ‘a silver bullet’ to control migration, says Badenoch

We are back on to the ECHR. Badenoch is asked if she agrees with Jenrick about leaving the ECHR.

“If we need to leave the ECHR to control migration, then we should do it,” she says. “But it is not a silver bullet.”

Harking back to the same question Jenrick faced, she raises the fact that other countries are able to deport people easier than Britain.

She says Northern Ireland and women’s rights are areas that need to be considered before a decision to leave the ECHR is taken.

“I will have a wholesale strategy [on immigration] across govenment. Numbers matter, culture matters more,” she says. “We all need to be moving in the same direction.”

When asked to put a figure on migration by Hope, she backtracks and says “it’s not about the numbers”. Thirty seconds ago, she said “numbers matter”.

There is no point leaving the EU, if you continue to do what the EU is doing, Badenoch says when pressed on whether Brexit has been a success.

“One of the reasons Brexit hasn’t been as much of a success as it should be is that we didn’t start with a plan,” she says.

She doesn’t like how “everything is blamed on Brexit”, she says. “Stop blaming Brexit for our problems.”

Hope says Badenoch had the chance to resolve problems with Brexit in government but didn’t.

She adds: “I was very much against a bonfire of all regulations without thinking about the consequences. Why? Because I am an engineer.”

Is “I’m an engineer” going to become the new “I’m the son of a toolmaker”? Only time will tell.

A question from the audience now about the planning system and what sort of reforms she might consider.

“The planning system is a mess and is one of the areas that needs reform,” she says. “We don’t pay our planning officers enough.”

Badenoch goes on to say that people are right to not want pylons built near their homes or have greenbelt land developed for housing.

She says the problem is that net zero targets were created without a plan (the plan needs to be based on Conservative principles though, she adds).

‘People run to the Guardian to tell lies about me,’ says Badenoch

Asked about the bullying allegations first published by the Guardian, she says “of course they run to the Guardian to tell lies about me”.

It’s because she got the bad people out of her department, she says.

“I don’t know how many of you believe what you read in the Guardian, but if you do, then you wouldn’t be here on GB News,” she says. Charming.

Hope asks if she is asking Tory members to vote for her based on trust and without the “nuts and bolts” of policies.

“I am somebody who you know delivers, I am somebody you know has a track record, you can trust me,” she says.

The policies will come, she adds. She wants to build a consensus first and wants to build a big team for the future.

Applause follows and, dare I say it, even some whooping.