The US labor market continued to grow in February even as threats of mass layoffs in the federal government and uncertainty around Donald Trump’s tariff policies rattle the US economy.
In February, 151,000 jobs were added to the economy, up from an adjusted 125,000 jobs gained in January. The unemployment rate was 4.1%, little changed from 4% in January. Economists had been expecting 170,000 new jobs to be added over the month.
A total of 10,000 federal jobs were lost over the month but those losses were countered by hiring in healthcare, financial activities, transportation and warehousing, and social assistance.
The report was based on surveys taken in the second week of February, and it will take longer for the mass government firings to appear in the official data.
Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics said the jobs report “confirms the economy started the year soft but is not plummeting towards a recession. Some of those fears may resurface in the March employment report, when recent federal government layoffs will be a much larger drag on employment.” But Ryan said private-sector hiring was still running at a “fairly healthy” average.
Other data points from earlier in the week showed signs of a slowing jobs market. The payroll firm ADP reported just 77,000 new hires in February, nearly half of what was projected. Meanwhile, the outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said that US-based employers announced 172,017 job cuts in February, the highest monthly total since July 2020.
The firm calculated more than 62,000 of the job cuts were from 17 different federal government agencies – up from 151 federal government cuts in February 2024.
It may take some time for the impact of the president’s policies, particularly the mass layoffs of federal government workers coming from Elon Musk’s so-called “department of government efficiency” (Doge) and the tariffs Trump has placed on China and threatened against Canada and Mexico, to fully impact the jobs market.
The full effect of the new policies will have on the labor market will depend on the extent to which they are carried out, which is currently unclear. Unions are disputing Doge’s buyout programs and the mass firing of probationary employees, and Trump said on Thursday he will further delay tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
The uncertainty battered consumer confidence in February, which saw its biggest month-by-month decline in nearly four years. Confidence on Wall Street also fell dramatically after Trump announced 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico.
The jobs report is closely watched by Federal Reserve officials, who will meet on 18 and 19 March to decide whether to change the interest rates. Interest rates currently sit at 4.25% to 4.5% after the Fed knocked rates down three times in the fall. The Fed board held rates steady at its last meeting in January, saying that inflation was still above the Fed’s target of 2%. Inflation in January hit 3%, having climbed up slowly in the fall.
After the Fed’s meeting in January, chair Jerome Powell said that officials were unsure what would happen with tariffs, immigration and overall fiscal and regulatory policy. “We are going to be watching carefully as we always do,” he added.
Source: www.theguardian.com