Tropical Cyclone Alfred is expected to make landfall early on Saturday morning, after the system “spun around on itself” and briefly stalled before resuming its predicted path to the populated south-east Queensland coast.
The 3.8 million residents of urban areas between the Sunshine Coast and the Gold Coast had been asked to hunker down in their homes from Thursday, ahead of an anticipated crossing on Friday.
Some in areas at risk of a severe storm surge were advised to leave before the worst conditions. Schools were closed and public transport halted.
Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Matthew Callopy said Alfred had “doubled back on its path” before resuming towards the coast, and that its crossing had been delayed by about 24 hours.
It is still predicted to cross as a category two storm.
Callopy said it was important not to get “hung up” on the precise crossing time because impacts would occur before and after.
At Main Beach on the Gold Coast, waves of 12.3m were recorded yesterday – the highest ever recorded at that site.
Callopy said if Alfred crossed the coast at high tide, storm surges of up to 1.5m were possible, and that parts of the Redland Bay and Gold Coast were likely to be most at risk.
“The hazards including the wind, rainfall, storm surge and flooding remain, and we expect them to develop through the day today as the system approaches the coast,” Callopy said.
“What we’ve seen overnight, in terms of the erratic movement of the system, reiterates the fact this is an evolving situation.”
Earlier forecasts suggested Alfred could develop into a “high end” category two system, though the most recent predictions are that winds will not be at the high end of the category, and that it was increasingly unlikely Alfred would develop into a category three system.
The Queensland premier, David Crisafulli, urged Queenslanders to use the additional time to double-check their preparations.
“I have spent a bit of time on the ground yesterday and the message is certainly getting out there,” he said.
“I want to thank people for that. Great stories, as well, of people reaching over the back fence for the first time. Neighbours helping neighbours, and strangers helping strangers and that’s really important at the moment.”
Conditions in south-east Queensland were eerily calm on Thursday morning but communities in northern New South Wales had been receiving heavy rain. Some homes in the northern rivers had lost power.
Where effects from storm surge and rain are already being felt, there are concerns the delayed arrival of Alfred could compound the impacts.
The New South Wales premier, Chris Minns, said Alfred was behaving “like a completely unwanted house guest”.
“It’s going to be late but linger even longer. Unfortunately that means the window for destruction in our community – heavy rains, winds, powerful surf – is longer than we would have otherwise like.”
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The prime minister, Anthony Albanese, said he had spoken with the mayor of Lismore, Steve Krieg, overnight.
“He spoke about what a tough night he’s had with himself and his partner. They are still in recovery mode. They’ve had hit after hit after hit,” Albanese said.
“At the worst of times we always see the best of Australian character. I said yesterday that there were no political parties in this process and there are no borders. Tropical Cyclone Alfred certainly does not recognise any borders and nor should the government’s response.”
The predicted cyclone’s track to the coast remained consistent, with the bureau stating it should cross somewhere between Noosa and Caloundra.
Helen Reid, a senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology, said the delayed track could be troublesome for communities along the coastline, whose natural defences were being eroded by strong surf conditions.
“It’s given us an extra period of coastal erosion,” Reid said. “That sense of coastal protection will be different to what it would otherwise be.”
Reid said Alfred’s progress had stalled overnight but it would probably continue its predicted track to the coast.
“It was making a steady track, but we did see a period of stagnation of movement overnight, and it does look that it will start a more distinct movement to the west [on Thursday],” Reid said.
Parts of northern NSW, already receiving heavy rainfall, would probably receive more in the coming days. Reid said that for communities in south-east Queensland in the path of the cyclone, the impacts would probably be similar to those predicted, just delayed.
An updated Bureau of Meteorology briefing from early Thursday said the models – which had previously largely been consistent in showing Alfred’s speed and path to the coast – had shown “variation in the strength of the steering flow”.
“The consensus is now for slower westward motion, and as a result a delayed time of coastal crossing,” it said.
“The latest track indicates a coastal crossing is more likely during early Saturday morning.”
Source: www.theguardian.com